Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first eight days of February was circa 14 percent lower than the daily run rate in January, says banking group Citi, citing industry sources.
But the bank still expects January and February GGR combined – i.e., including the coming Chinese New Year (CNY) period in February – to be 13.5 percent better than the same period last year.
“Macau GGR for the first eight days of February is likely to have reached approximately MOP5.0 billion” (US$621.1 million currently), stated the institution in a Monday note.
“This implies a daily run-rate of approximately MOP625 million, approximately 14 percent lower than the GGR run-rate in January, (at about MOP730 million per day) and circa 11 percent lower than that in February 2025,” when it was circa MOP705 million per day, it added.
The bank observed: “The moderation in GGR run rate is likely reflecting the unsurprising seasonal pre-Chinese New Year slowdown in volumes.”
Kenneth Feng Xiaofeng, chief executive of Macau operator MGM China Holdings Ltd, had suggested on an earnings call on Thursday, that in the current market, even the run up to big holidays did not see a marked decline in tourism demand in the city.
On the Chinese mainland, this year’s Chinese New Year, falling on February 17, will be marked by a nine-day holiday starting on February 15.
Citi nonetheless said in its commentary on the early-February gaming performance: “Based on industry sources, VIP volumes fell approximately 12 to 14 percent month-on-month, and mass GGR fell approximately 11 to 13 percent month-on-month.”
It added: “VIP hold rate appears to be largely normal.”
The institution stated: “We keep our February 2026 GGR forecast of MOP20.5 billion unchanged (+4 percent year-on-year), implying GGR to average about MOP775 million per day for the rest of the month.
“Our January and February combined GGR forecast (neutralising the different timing of Chinese New Year this year versus last year), remains unchanged at MOP43.1 billion, implying a 13.5-percent year-on-year growth.”
In calendar-year 2025, Chinese New Year fell on January 29, and China’s State Council declared the holiday period as lasting eight days, from January 28 to February 4 that year.
