Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth this year may “outperform” that in the casino duopoly Singapore and the United States hub of Las Vegas, Nevada, says banking group Morgan Stanley.
“We forecast Macau industry growth of circa 6 percent year-on-year in 2026. This is higher than [Las] Vegas and Singapore, roughly 1 percent each,” stated the institution in a Wednesday note.
Macau’s 2025 GGR was up 9.1-percent year-on-year, at MOP247.40 billion (US$30.63 billion currently), according to data from the city’s government.
Nonetheless, the bank thinks that for 2026, Macau’s sector-wide growth in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) will be “weaker than consensus and worse than 2025,” at 2 percent year-on-year.
Morgan Stanley analysts stated regarding Macau, referring to competition for players in a middle-tier segment and the incentives to them – known as ‘reinvestment’: “We believe cost pressure (especially reinvestment) is structural due to premium mass focus” in the Macau market.
The bank added there could be “negative earnings revisions” during the year, amid “margin pressure that could drive underperformance,” and that might “pressure EBITDA estimates for 2026”.
Morgan Stanley suggested there were three reasons why Macau’s industry EBITDA might only grow by 2 percent this year.
These were “second-half 2026 GGR growth slowing due to base effect and base-mass [player business] continuing to be slow; “elevated levels of promotion allowances”; and “continued non-gaming expenses”.
The latter was understood to be a reference to factors including the pledges that Macau’s six operators made to the city’s government regarding their current 10-year gaming concessions that began in January 2023.
The institution said it was downgrading its industry view on Macau gaming to “in-line”, from “attractive”, as it sees “lower GGR year-on-year growth starting May and negative EBITDA growth in the second quarter and third quarter”.
In Wednesday’s memo, Morgan Stanley said the Singapore gaming market “should continue to see gaming volumes grow” this year.
Singapore hosts a casino duopoly consisting of the Resorts World Sentosa property of Genting Singapore Ltd, and Marina Bay Sands, controlled by Las Vegas Sands Corp.
“We expect gaming volumes to grow at a mid-single digit pace in 2026,” the institution said.
“This is supported by continued strength at Marina Bay Sands and ramp-up of newly opened amenities at Genting Singapore, although we do not expect Genting Singapore to meaningfully recapture market share from Marina Bay Sands,” the bank stated.
It added: “Following unusually strong hold rates at Marina Bay Sands in 2025, hold normalisation will likely offset volume growth, leading to flat industry GGR and circa 1-percent year-on-year decline in EBITDA for Singapore in 2026.”
