Consumer acceptance of Macau’s latest baccarat side bets is possibly being hurt by complexity of play rules and players’ perception about the chance of success, despite the big payouts on offer. That is according to local gaming scholar Ryan Ho Hong Wai in comments to GGRAsia.
Some recently-added side bets “appear to be infrequently wagered, with many players’ initial reaction being that the bets are less attractive, given the asymmetric nature of the payoff versus the likelihood of loss,” Mr Ho suggested, citing observation from frontline casino staff.
The scholar was referring to the ‘Monkey no Monkey’, ‘Pairs+’, and ‘4/5/6 Cards’ side bet combinations.
That was compared to the enthusiastic adoption by gamblers of an earlier generation of baccarat proposition products during 2024, including ‘Small 6/Big 6’ side bets as well as ‘Lucky 7’ and ‘Super Lucky 7’.
The more recent round of side-bet products saw Macau’s casino regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, approve in late March ‘Monkey no Monkey’, ‘Pairs+’, and ‘4/5/6 Cards’. These new side-bet propositions mostly boast a theoretical house edge of mid-teens of percent or higher, according to information provided by industry sources, as compiled by GGRAsia (see table below).
| Betting propositions | Pays | |
| Monkey no Monkey | If the cards initially dealt in aggregate for the ‘player’ hand and the ‘banker’ hand are four face cards (J,Q,K) | 50 to 1 |
| If the cards initially dealt in aggregate for the ‘player’ hand and the ‘banker’ hand are four numbered cards (A to 10) | 1 to 1 | |
| Theoretical house edge: | In average for the two play tracks: 16.50pct | |
| Pairs+ | If the first two cards of the ‘banker’ hand and first two cards of the ‘player’ hand respectively each form a ‘pair’, and do so with equal-point scores | 300 to 1 |
| If the first two cards of the ‘banker’ hand and the first two cards of the ‘player’ hand respectively each form a ‘pair’, but with different-point scores | 30 to 1 | |
| If only the ‘banker’ hand or only the ‘player’ hand receives a ‘pair’ in its initial two cards | 3 to 1 | |
| Theoretical house edge: | In average for the three play tracks: 17.14pct | |
| 4/5/6 Cards | When the ‘banker’ hand wins on six cards dealt in combination | 5.5 to 1 |
| When the ‘banker’ hand wins on five cards dealt in combination | 4.5 to 1 | |
| When the ‘banker’ hand wins on four cards dealt in aggregate across the ‘banker’ hand and the ‘player’ hand | 4 to 1 | |
| Theoretical house edge: | In average for the three banker hand winning combos: 14.44pct | |
| When the ‘player’ hand wins on six cards dealt in aggregate | 4.5 to 1 | |
| When the ‘player’ hand wins on five cards dealt in aggregate | 6 to 1 | |
| When the ‘player’ hand wins on four cards dealt in aggregate | 4 to 1 | |
| Theoretical house edge: | In average for the three player hand winning combos: 15.05pct |
Following the regulatory approval of the latest-generation side bets, most Macau casino operators have started incorporating ‘Monkey no Monkey’ and ‘Pairs+’ into their ‘smart’ gaming tables on main floors. That coincided with the Labour Day holiday season in early May, GGRAsia understood from site checks.
The side bet combinations for ‘4/5/6 Cards’ have so far seen only partial adoption across Macau’s main gaming floors, per GGRAsia site checks on July 3. GGRAsia was only able to access mass floors, not VIP gaming areas.
Sands Macao – a Macau peninsula property run by Sands China Ltd – has been observed by GGRAsia as operating three gaming tables in its “Gold Fortune” high-limits zone with the full suite of ‘4/5/6 Cards’ side bets.
MGM China Holdings Ltd was observed in May offering only the ‘4-Cards’ proposition from the ‘4/5/6 Cards’ product on the mass floors of its MGM Macau and MGM Cotai properties. The firm seems recently to have withdrawn ‘4-Cards’ from its main floors, per GGRAsia’s latest site checks.
Wynn Macau Ltd has seemingly since June been offering ‘4-Cards’ for the main floors of Wynn Macau and Wynn Palace from June. That product could only be seen at each property in a single zone with live baccarat featuring main-bet minimums of HKD1,000 (US$127.8) to HKD2,000.
‘Small 6/Big 6’, ‘Lucky 7’, and ‘Super Lucky 7’ had seen the full range of their respective bet propositions offered market wide in Macau soon after their respective regulatory approval in 2024.
‘Monkey no Monkey’, ‘Pairs+’, and ‘4/5/6 Cards’ may be “more complex to grasp at first glance” for players, suggested Mr Ho, a lecturer at the Centre for Gaming and Tourism Studies at Macao Polytechnic University.
“Operators may therefore need time for staff training, smart-table layout adjustments, and player familiarisation before rolling them out widely,” the industry scholar added.
Intuitive play rules
The pace and extent of side bet adoption depend on factors including the tier of gaming patrons; how quickly they make decisions per hand; and the degree that they typically engage with optional proposition bets, said Mr Ho.
He also said: “From a player-behaviour perspective, adoption [of side bets] can be constrained by [players’] perceived value and volatility rather than by fancy payouts.”
The scholar also suggested that the popularity of side bets hinged on whether the play rules seemed intuitive.
“Some of these [new] side bets may be perceived as less directly tied to the primary ‘banker/player’ decision in baccarat. By contrast, the ‘Lucky 6/7’ outcomes are more clearly linked to the main wager that most players already place,” suggested Mr Ho.
He added, referring to the ‘6s’ and ‘7s’ side bet options: “The ‘Lucky’ bets are intuitive to many players”, as those options are perceived as enhancing likelihood for players to “win more”, or help the players as a “partial hedge” against a banker win on six points in non-commission baccarat.
The fresh-to-market baccarat side bets could prove to be an “acquired taste” for Macau’s mass gamblers, as it would in likelihood take “time and repeated exposure” for players to appreciate those optional proposition bets, Mr Ho remarked.
While fresh side bets could be viewed as a “positive” in terms innovation for Macau’s gaming floors, the balancing of the side-bet menu on a baccarat table could be also important in terms of player appeal, Mr Ho also suggested.
“Baccarat is not typically approached [by gamblers] like games such as sic bo or craps, where players expect multiple proposition bets. And baccarat decisions are usually made in a very short time frame,” said Mr Ho.
“Adding too many complex [side bet] options may increase cognitive load [for players], and too much choice may reduce their participation,” the scholar added.
