GGRAsia – Citi trims Macau Sept GGR forecast to US$2.2bln

Citi trims Macau Sept GGR forecast to US$2.2bln

Sep 19, 2024 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 15 days of September was estimated at MOP8.5 billion (US$1.06 billion), implying a daily run rate of about MOP536 million for the last seven days, said Citigroup in a Monday memo, citing industry sources.

The daily run-rate for the seven days to September 15 was “circa 10-percent lower versus the first eight days of September at about MOP594 million a day,” said the banking institution.

“It looks like [the] VIP hold rate was lower than that of the first eight days” of September, it added. “Based on industry sources, VIP volumes were down 8 to 10 percent month-on-month and mass volumes were down 10 to 12 percent month-on-month.”

Although business volumes “seem to be significantly weaker week-on-week,” Citigroup said it “suspects this reflects some players choosing to postpone their Macau trips till the Mid-Autumn Festival”.

China’s State Council designated the holiday period for mainland residents as September 15 to 17 inclusive.

Citigroup said it had trimmed its estimate for Macau’s September casino GGR from the previous MOP18.25 billion to MOP17.75 billion. The latter tally, if realised, would represent a year-on-year growth of 19 percent, and would also be equivalent to about 80 percent of the GGR figure recorded during the same month in 2019.

This was the second time the institution lowered its estimate for Macau’s GGR tally in September. Last week, it reduced its estimate from the original MOP18.5-billion forecast, to reflect “the minor negative impact” from Typhoon Yagi earlier this month.