Citigroup has slashed its 2025 growth forecast for Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR), citing as factors “disappointing” Chinese New Year (CNY) Golden Week gambling volume, and the implementation by the United States, on February 1, of tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S.
High-value mainland players in the Macau casino market have traditionally included Chinese factory owners, often with interests in export sectors, according to long-standing commentary by investment analysts.
Citi now expects 3 percent year-on-year GGR growth in Macau this year, versus its previous forecast of 7 percent. First-half GGR could actually fall 1 percent year-on-year, added the banking group.
The institution said Macau “produced lower-than-anticipated“ GGR of MOP589 million (US$73.4 million) per day in January, and “circa MOP900 million per day in the first five days of February”. The first four days of February were part of the lunar new year – an eight-day holiday in mainland China, Macau’s main tourism feeder market.
Citi attributed the “disappointing CNY GGR print” to “some late Macau trip cancellations by players”. That happened toward the end of Golden Week which ran until February 4, and coincided with the U.S. tariffs, said analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
“These two data points turn us more cautious on near-term GGR trends,” they stated.
“We believe the implementation of U.S. tariffs against China on February 1 has dampened gaming demand towards the end of the CNY Golden Week, and we expect this impact to continue throughout most of first-half 2025,” stated the analysts.
They added: “At the current run-rate, January and February combined GGR could become the second consecutive negative GGR data point.”
The Citi team said investors could expect a “rosier picture as early as June”.
The Citi analysts stated: “We expect player sentiment to start to recover in second-half 2025 as the impact from the [U.S.] tariffs gets digested.”
They added that demand for Macau gaming was likely to “reaccelerate as major events return to Macau,” giving as an example a concert due in June at Galaxy Arena at the Galaxy Macau casino resort on Cotai, by Hong Kong singer and actor Jacky Cheung.
Second-half 2025 demand was also likely to be supported by the summer holiday season and “National Day Golden Week,” said the bank.
That was a reference to a week-long holiday on the Chinese mainland, encompassing China’s national day on October 1.
Citi stated that its second-half 2025 Macau GGR forecast of MOP119.5 billion implied a daily run rate of circa MOP650 million and 6 percent year-on-year GGR growth, though it added that the comparison base for second half 2024 was “relatively low”.
