A “stronger renminbi versus the [U.S.] dollar and a currently positive industrial profit indicator in China should drive” Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth in 2026, suggested CLSA in a Wednesday memo.
“We project Macau’s GGR to grow 5 percent year-on-year to US$32.3 billion, implying a daily GGR of MOP709 million [US$88.5 million] per day,” wrote analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan.
If achieved, such annual GGR would be “moderating” from an expected 8.8-percent growth for full-year 2025.
In September, the brokerage said it expected Macau GGR this year to reach about US$30.6 billion.
“We marginally raise our projection for 2025 Macau GGR by 0.4 percent as we insert the actual GGR print for October while keeping our forecast unchanged,” stated the analysts.
Macau casino GGR for the first 10 months of this year reached MOP205.43 billion, up 8.0 percent from a year earlier, according to official data.
CLSA’s projection implies that the Macau casino sector’s “free cashflow to equity holders will be steady year-on-year at US$4.2 billion in 2026, while paying out 68 percent as dividends”.
According to the institution, “dividends should still increase, most notably at Sands China [Ltd] and Melco [Resorts & Entertainment Ltd]”, while Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and MGM China Holdings Ltd “have the deepest pockets to raise payout ratios”.
Melco Resorts last paid a dividend in February 2020. The company said on its third-quarter earnings call earlier this month, it might restart dividends “by the end” of 2026.
In CLSA’s latest memo, the brokerage also noted that a “step-up” in Macau’s casino GGR “momentum since June has continued into the fourth quarter of 2025”.
“We attributed this to a directionally stronger renminbi against U.S. dollar as well as improved industrial profitability in China,” stated the analysts.
The analysts noted: “For 2026, while we expect annual revenue growth will be moderate, GGR market share, margins and dividends will remain key for equity investors.”
“As we assume the current GGR per day should continue in 2026, the sector is poised to deliver low-teens GGR growth in the first half of 2026, in our view, aided by a low base,” the analysts said.
The year-on-year percentage growth “will moderate going into the second half of 2026,” they added.
The CLSA team added that the “next upgrade cycle should be driven by grind mass … which tracks closer to the broader China consumer base”.
The analysts added: “As a result, we now forecast Macau’s GGR to grow 4.9 percent year-on-year to MOP259.0 billion (US$32.3 billion) in 2026, followed by 5.2-percent year-on-year growth in 2027, to MOP272.6 billion (US$34.0 billion).”
