Brokerage CLSA Ltd forecasts the Macau casino sector’s third-quarter earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) grew circa 10 percent year-on-year, to the equivalent of about US$2.06 billion.
That is according to a Monday note from its analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan, previewing earnings season covering the three months to September 30.
They suggested that the quarterly result would be “underpinned by a 15 percent year-on-year growth in visitations to Macau (in July and August) and a 2.3 percentage point year-on-year expansion in average room occupancy of five-star hotels in Macau”.
The institution noted the Macau regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, reported third-quarter gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased 12.5 percent year-on-year to nearly MOP62.6 billion (US$7.81 billion), “implying a GGR of MOP680 million per day, 1.2 percent above the MOP672 million per day in second quarter 2025”.
Though CLSA added: “The luck-adjusted EBITDA margin this [third] quarter is likely under pressure because of a 33-hour casino closure and higher payroll costs due to Typhoon Ragasa.”
That was a reference to a powerful tropical storm in late September that led to the shuttering of the city’s casinos on the order of Macau’s Chief Executive, Sam Hou Fai.
CLSA estimated that Wynn Macau Ltd was the biggest GGR market share gainer sequentially in the third quarter, at 13.5 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from the second quarter.
The brokerage put Sands China Ltd has having the leading share of GGR in the three months to September 30, at 23.2 percent, up 50 basis points on the second quarter’s 22.7 percent. The institution put Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd in second place, with 20.8 percent, up 40 basis points sequentially.
CLSA had MGM China Holdings Ltd in third spot, with 15.5 percent, though that was down 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd was estimated as in fourth, with 14.7 percent of Macau-market GGR, down 1.1 percentage points.
SJM Holdings Ltd was put at 12.3 percent of Macau GGR in the third quarter, down 10 basis points on the second quarter.
