Macau’s “robust momentum” in terms of casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth “has continued in third-quarter 2025,” and is likely to sustain through the second half this year, suggested CLSA in a Wednesday memo.
The brokerage forecasts the Chinese yuan to strengthen further against the U.S. dollar, which it said “bodes well” for Macau’s gaming sector’s GGR growth for the remainder of the year. Other factors supporting the momentum of Macau’s gaming industry include “Industrial profitability” and a “positive stock market performance,” stated the institution.
“We note the renminbi [Chinese yuan] has appreciated by 0.4 percent against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of July,” wrote CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan.
“This bodes well for the [Macau gaming] sector’s GGR growth ahead due to better outbound travel from mainland China,” they added.
According to the analysts, the recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan has supported a year-on-year growth in the average daily GGR rate in July and August, which averaged MOP714 million (US$88.9 million) per day in the two months.
Observing that the profitability indicator for factories in China had further improved month-on-month in July, the analysts stated: “As a result, we raise our 2025 and 2026 GGR forecast – by 1.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively – to HKD245.7 billion (US$30.6 billion), and HKD255.6 billion (US$31.8 billion).”
Casino GGR in August marked the best monthly performance since January 2020, just before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, at MOP22.16 billion.
In Wednesday’s memo, CLSA said Macau’s GGR trend has historically correlated to the foreign exchange trend between the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar.
“Historically, from January to November 2017, a 4-percent appreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar coincided with 24-percent growth in average GGR per day, from MOP621 million per day to MOP768 million per day over the same time horizon,” wrote the CLSA team.
The analysts also mentioned a similar trend observed in 2024, when “depreciating renminbi against the U.S. dollar weighing on the daily GGR from January to July, as well as November and December”.
The brokerage also observed that players are likely to increase their gaming budget when the Chinese yuan strengthens.
“In our 800 panellists surveyed in 2025, 47 percent of them revealed they will increase their gaming budget if the renminbi strengthens against” the Macau pataca, the latter indirectly pegged to the U.S. dollar, said CLSA.
The brokerage also expects the Macau gaming sector to have a busy October Golden Week holiday this year, observing that Chinese consumer confidence is improving. The term “Golden Week” refers to public holidays on the Chinese mainland – Macau’s main tourism feeder market – that usually coincide with peak business periods for the city’s casinos.
This year, China’s State Council has designated October 1 to October 8 as the break period, encompassing both the National Day holiday on October 1 and the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6.
“From our internal weekly data tracking of Macau’s hotels, we have observed strong bookings – 33 out of 38 tracked hotels are fully booked – and average room prices are trending up nicely,” suggested the CLSA analysts, noting its latest check was done on August 29, i.e., five weeks ahead of the vacation period.
The analysts added: “Based on historical trends, we expect [hotel room] prices and occupancy to come down as we approach the holiday, and more room inventory to get released. Nonetheless, this year’s data is tracking ahead of last year and bodes well for concessionaires.”
