Citigroup expects Macau industry gross gaming revenue (GGR) to grow by 6 percent year-on-year in financial year 2026, “to MOP263.5 billion, or circa US$33.0 billion; about 90 percent of the 2019 level”.
The banking institution forecasts Macau’s industry earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to grow by 10 percent year-on-year in 2026, with EBITDA margins flat at “circa 29 percent,” according to a Thursday memo.
“With an illustrious concert calendar, luxurious new hotel suite supply and new baccarat side bets, we believe Macau will remain the top travel destination for the affluent mainland Chinese visitors who seek a total experience,” wrote analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
They added: “We expect concerts to drive growth in visitation and premium players’ per-capita spending (as they need to check-in cash to the casinos to secure hot concert tickets), new hotel suites to increase average length of stay, and the increasing popularity in new side bets to further boost hold rates.”
The Macau government has forecast the city’s casino GGR will reach MOP236 billion for full-year 2026, according to its fiscal budget plan for next year.
That would represent a 3.5-percent increase from the government’s forecast for full-year 2025 GGR, of MOP228 billion.
Macau’s casino GGR for the first 11 months of this year already reached MOP226.52 billion, an 8.6-percent increase from the prior-year period, showed government data.
The Citigroup analysts however expect a “minor speed bump” during the summer months, due to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, held from mid-June to mid-July.
“Historical data suggest that major soccer tournaments could take away some Macau players’ betting budgets,” stated the analysts, pointing to the example of the UEFA EURO tournament in 2024.
“Because of the new format in this year’s FIFA World Cup, a total of 88 matches will be played in the group stage (from June 11 to July 3), more than double the matches played in UEFA Euro 2024,” the analysts observed.
“This is why we anticipate Macau to generate GGR of only MOP19.0 billion in June 2026 (minus 10 percent year-on-year), and MOP21.0 billion in July 2026 (minus 5 percent year-on-year),” the Citigroup team said.
“That said, we expect positive GGR growth to resume as soon as the tournament finishes,” they added.
The banking institution said it expects Sands China Ltd “to be the largest market share gainer” next year, up 1.6 percentage points to 25.1 percent, “as further ramp-up of Londoner Grand [hotel] and Venetian Arena should translate into above-industry EBITDA growth”.
The Citigroup duo said it expects Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd “to remain GGR and EBITDA market share leaders in 2026, thanks to their structural advantages of operating large-scale arenas for concerts”.
As for Wynn Macau Ltd, “its market share should start recovering soon after its expanded Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace opens in first-quarter 2026,” the analysts added.
