The election of construction tycoon Anutin Charnvirakul as Thailand’s new prime minister – confirmed by the nation’s parliament on Friday – is in likelihood another blow to the prospects of casino legalisation in the country, according to Daniel Cheng, a prominent commentator on the Asia-Pacific casino sector and a former casino executive.
He told GGRAsia: “You can pretty much move the entertainment complex [bill] to the bottom drawer and lock it up for the next half year; and if I were a betting man, don’t count on an early sequel.”
Friday’s election of Mr Anutin as prime minister ended a week-long power vacuum following the ouster of his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
Ms Shinawatra’s coalition government, including the Pheu Thai party she had been representing, had promoted a policy to legalise entertainment complexes, each due to house a casino.
In early July, Thailand’s House of Representatives voted by a large majority to approve a cabinet-requested withdrawal of the Entertainment Complex Bill.
Mr Anutin’s right-wing Bhumjaithai party had entered a coalition with Ms Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai in 2023, but withdrew in June over her alleged misconduct in a leaked phone call with Cambodian ex-leader Hun Sen.
Mr Anutin is the kingdom’s third leader in two years. He took power with backing from the more dominant and progressive People’s Party on condition that he dissolves parliament within four months to hold general elections.
Following his Friday election, Mr Anutin vowed to hold fresh elections to select a new government.
Analyst Mr Cheng told GGRAsia: “The pundits can pretty much go on holiday until March next year when the new government is elected. That it isn’t going to be Pheu Thai is almost a foregone conclusion, and I will be the contrarian to hopeful casino investors that it is a good thing.”
He added: “[Pheu Thai] had steered what had been a positive initiative down a dark narrow tunnel to a mutually assured destruction of both bill and party.”
Mr Cheng forecast that if either the People’s Party or Bhumjaithai are able successfully to appoint a prime minister from their ranks after the 2026 election, casinos will likely be “off the table in the new government’s manifesto, which all but guarantees a prolonged hiatus”.
He suggested that for casino legalisation discussions in Thailand to “stage a comeback before 2030”, a number of factors would need to align.
That included, according to him, the national economy continuing “to sputter”; “political or business heavyweights step[ping] forward to resurrect the entertainment complex concept by resetting it and starting again”; or Pheu Thai managing “to retain enough clout as leader of the opposition to keep the idea alive”.
Mr Cheng stated that, “simply put, it needs to be a multi-partisan effort” with both ruling and opposition political parties in agreement, “for it to happen and be successful”.
He stressed that casino legalisation in Thailand would likely require the inclusion of a referendum.
“The most efficient path would be to fold the question into the ballot paper of the upcoming elections, but I don’t see any political will – even if an economic exigency exists – from the Bhumjaithai interim government nor its People’s Party enabler to do so.”
