Sunday’s inconclusive snap national election in Japan that hurt the usually-dominant Liberal Democratic Party, could muddy the outlook for any further round of casino-resort licensing, an industry commentator has told GGRAsia. Another seasoned observer thought the current political flux would make little difference to the outlook for integrated resorts (IRs) with casinos as a sector in Japan.
So far, amid a liberalisation process that dates back more than a decade, only Osaka city and prefecture have won the right to host an IR. The JPY1.27-trillion (US$8.28-billion currently) MGM Osaka involves MGM Resorts International and Orix Corp, and is due to open in 2030.
The LDP – the main backer of the IR policy – and its coalition partner, Komeito, failed on Sunday to gain a majority in the lower house of the country’s parliament. The coalition secured 215 seats in the 465-seat lower house, short of the 233 seats needed. The bloc had not lost its majority there since 2009.
Industry commentator and former casino executive Daniel Cheng told GGRAsia, regarding IRs: “An absolute, stable majority government with strong leadership is essential for propagating policies, legislating and expanding this sector.”
“In this regard, the Japanese political climate has been spiralling downward for many years since the end of Shinzo Abe’s tenure, and it is now near rock bottom following last weekend’s election results,” he added.
“Consequently, the stagnation over the two undispensed IR licences is likely to continue,” Mr Cheng noted.
That was a reference to the fact that up to three licences could have been issued by the authorities in the announced liberalisation. In the end, only two communities applied, and one of those – Nagasaki – did not have its plan approved at national level.
Mr Cheng is the author of a book called “Japan Casino Uprising”, about the country’s complicated path to casino liberalisation.
Toru Mihara, a Japanese scholar, told GGRAsia: “Political confusion may continue for the time being but this may not impact IR [policy].”
The academic, who heads a body called the National Council on Gaming Legislation, added: “It is unlikely that [national] government or [a] political party will… influence… the remaining two slots for IR [licences].
He stated: “I discussed personally with the commissioner [of the Japan Tourism Agency] who clearly declares that it is up to the local governments… If they are willing” to host an IR, “the door is always open.”
“The real question may be whether the local governments have such strong willingness to promote IR [policy],” Mr Mihara said.
Costly hurdles
Mr Cheng stated: “Orix/MGM can count their lucky stars that the Osaka government managed to secure its [IR] licence before the [country’s] political situation worsened.
“Without an LDP government wielding carte blanche powers – or worse, the emergence of a new CDP [Constitutional Democratic Party] coalition government – the Osaka consortium will be concerned about stricter controls and oversight on their project construction, along with potential tightening of regulatory policies in areas such as social safeguards, security, and financial controls in their business operations,” suggested Mr Cheng.
He added: “The Japan Casino Regulatory Commission is unlikely to conduct any additional IR licence tenders without receiving implicit approval from the political leadership, which is unlikely to occur amid the current domestic political flux — a situation that is likely to persist for many years until another Abe-type LDP government comes to power.”
Mr Mihara noted there were “high investment hurdles” facing investors, and that under current national guidelines they were obliged to operate “huge MICE facilities”. That was a reference to space for meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions as part of their non-gaming operations.
Mr Mihara noted: “…not all prefectures want to have huge exposition facilities which make investment costs very expensive.”
It is also politically challenging for Japan’s local governors to say ‘yes’ to hosting an IR, as this topic was “politically contentious” Mr Mihara also explained.
The scholar remarked: “Look at the failure of Nagasaki prefecture and Yokohama city – they’ve been promoting IR for more than a decade, spending huge money and manpower, but lost everything. The cost to promote IR is very high… this is another hurdle that every local government is hesitating to raise their hand.”
Yokohama had expressed interest in hosting an IR, and had attracted interest from major operators, but eventually in September 2021, decided not to apply to the national authorities for permission.
