Investment bank JP Morgan expects the Macau operations of casino developer Las Vegas Sands Corp to achieve property-level earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of just above US$2.66 billion.
In Macau, the casino group – via its Sands China Ltd unit – runs a number of casino properties, including The Venetian Macao, The Parisian Macao (pictured), The Londoner Macao, and Sands Macao.
“For 2025, we reduce our aggregate Macau property level EBITDA [forecast] to US$2.66 billion, from our prior US$2.8 billion – down 5 percent –, representing levels that are – hopefully – ultimately conservative,” wrote JP Morgan analysts Joseph Greff, Samuel Nielsen and Pritesh Patel in a Wednesday memo.
The institution expects the Macau operations of Las Vegas Sands to record property-level EBITDA of US$2.33 billion for full-year 2024, following a downward revision to fourth-quarter earnings.
The analysts stated: “For the fourth-quarter 2024, we are lowering our aggregate Macau property level EBITDA to US$578 million, from our prior US$625 million – down US$47 million or 8 percent.”
They said the revision was based on an assumption of fourth-quarter Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) market share of “circa 23 percent” for the Las Vegas Sands group, “down about 120 basis points sequentially”. The casino group will report its fourth-quarter results to the market on January 29.
The JP Morgan team stated: “Our assumptions in Macau reflect a greater than expected impact from President Xi’s visit in December, some lingering renovation impacts at the Londoner [Macao] – which should largely abate through the first quarter of 2025 –, and what we think is likely below normal VIP hold in Macau.”
The institution expects Las Vegas Sands to achieve net revenues in Macau of US$8.21 billion this year, following an estimate of US$7.82 billion for 2024.
Las Vegas Sands also runs the Marina Bay Sands casino complex in Singapore.
In its Wednesday note, JP Morgan said it left its estimates for Marina Bays Sands property-level EBITDA “largely unchanged” for the fourth quarter of 2024 through 2025, as it views the Singapore market “as relatively healthy”.
The bank said it expects Marina Bay Sands to report net revenues of nearly US$4.13 billion for full-year 2024, followed by US$4.30 billion this year.
JP Morgan estimates property-level EBITDA at Marina Bay Sands of US$2.04 billion for 2024, growing to US$2.17 billion this year.
Earlier this month, Las Vegas Sands Corp said it would pay US$1 billion to the Singaporean authorities in return for changes to the expansion project for the Marina Bay Sands casino complex.
The casino group is forecasting a 40 percent leap in adjusted property EBITDA once the expansion of the property is operating. In November, the company said it projected annual adjusted property EBITDA of US$3.5 billion post the extension, from a US$2.5-billion target prior to the addition of facilities.
