Macau’s gaming sector could see casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) reach HKD228.1 billion or US$29.2 billion in 2024, a tally that would represent close to 30 percent year-on-year growth, says Jeffrey Kiang, an analyst at brokerage CLSA Ltd, in comments to GGRAsia.
It would also equal about 82 percent of 2019 GGR. For 2025, the institution anticipates Macau’s casino GGR can reach “89 percent” of the 2019 pre-pandemic level.
“By segment, we forecast 2024’s overall mass GGR (including premium mass, but excluding slot machines) to increase 31 percent year-on-year to US$23.2 billion (or HKD181.2 billion, being 18 percent above 2019’s level),” Mr Kiang remarked to us.
A 2024 tally of US$29.2 billion in GGR would signify 28.4 percent growth from the US$22.75 billion reached in full-year 2023.
A “majority” of 2024 annual growth was likely to be in the first half of this year, as visitor volume from mainland China – the most important feeder source for Macau’s gaming and hospitality trade – was expected to continue the path to normalising to pre-Covid 19 level, Mr Kiang noted.
“Mathematically, the first half of 2023 was still a low base for Macau’s GGR, as it took time for Macau to solve the labour shortage bottleneck and [for] transportation capacity from [mainland] China to ramp,” the CLSA analyst further remarked to us.
He added: “…we expect holiday GGR performance [in 2024] to be robust – but that would be quite even” in terms of split, between “the first half (Chinese New Year and May Golden Week) and the second half (summer holiday and October Golden Week)”.
For the calendar year just completed, Macau casino operators Sands China Ltd, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and MGM China Holdings Ltd are expected to have had the biggest shares of GGR, according to CLSA’s research. Sands China might see its 2023 GGR at HKD47.62 billion, or about US$6.1 billion, followed by Galaxy Entertainment at HKD32.38 billion and MGM China at nearly HKD25.89 billion, CLSA estimated.
For 2024, the brokerage expects Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment to maintain the highest share of GGR. The forecast for Sands China is HKD60.47 billion, with Galaxy Entertainment at nearly HKD44.36 billion; and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd at nearly HKD34.47 billion.
CLSA also maintains its estimate for the Macau’s gaming sector’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) at US$8.5 billion in 2024, which would represent 92 percent of 2019-level.
