While the Macau gaming sector should see “steady” growth in 2026 earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), “heavy capital spending and shareholder payouts” could weigh on cash flow of casino operators there, suggests S&P Global Ratings.
The institution’s rated issuers in context of the Macau industry are Melco Resorts (Macau) Ltd; Studio City Co Ltd; Wynn Resorts Ltd; Las Vegas Sands Corp, and MGM Resorts International.
Of these operators, only Las Vegas Sands – parent of Macau operator Sands China Ltd – has returned to S&P Global’s pre-pandemic rating level of “BBB-”, with ‘stable’ outlook.
In a Monday report, the ratings house forecast Macau’s 2026 casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to increase by 3 percent to 7 percent year-on-year – slowing from 9.1 percent growth in 2025.
Factors in the likely slowing of expansion were the gaming sector’s “near-full hotel occupancy, limited new capacity and a slower return of base mass players”.
“Macau’s gaming boom is fading. The sector will be moving from a post-pandemic rebound to a more maturity-driven phase, as capacity limits and potentially softer mass demand temper growth,” suggested S&P Global.
The institution also gave some comment on macroeconomic factors relating to the Chinese mainland, the main feeder market for Macau tourism.
S&P Global said: “The phasing-out of Chinese government incentives is weakening [mainland] consumption, which could erode spending on leisure or travel.”
Though it added: “This risk is… lower than a year ago because gaming demand was stable in 2025, supported by premium mass players who faced less economic hardship.”
The ratings house anticipated Macau’s mass gaming market would see “steady growth” this year, which it said should drive a circa 5-percent increase in the EBITDA for its rated issuers.
“EBITDA growth for Sands China and Melco should accelerate in 2026 in line with ramping up the new capacity at The Londoner [Macao] and at the Countdown,” S&P Global suggested, referring latterly to a hotel currently under revamp at Melco Resorts’ Cotai flagship City of Dreams.
“Cost discipline and better operating leverage should help expand margins,” it added.
MGM China Holdings Ltd and Wynn Macau Ltd’s EBITDA improvement “may be moderately slower largely due to lack of new hotel capacity, and competition”.
Non-Macau projects, shareholder payouts
The ratings institution stated: “At a group level, MGM, Sands, Wynn, and Melco should have slightly more discretionary cash flow to work with in 2026, but they’ll still be spending more than they generate.”
It noted referring to U.S parent firms of two Macau operators: “For MGM [Resorts International] and Wynn [Resorts Ltd], development projects in Japan and the UAE [United Arab Emirates] will likely mean capital spending remains high.”
It added, referring to a recent competition for downstate casino rights in New York in which those two parent groups had initially been involved: “They may slightly increase share repurchases after dropping out of the bidding for New York casino licences.”
S&P Global added: “Melco has likely passed its peak investment cycle. We believe it will focus on debt reduction, shareholder returns, and investments until cash flow recovers more substantially.”
For its rated issuers Wynn Resorts, MGM Resorts, Melco Resorts (Macau) Ltd and Studio City Co Ltd, their deleveraging efforts would help determine if and when they could return to their pre-pandemic rating levels, S&P Global also said.
“The ratings on Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts International both remain a notch below pre-pandemic level,” the ratings house said.
It added: “Although their leverage is below our upgrade threshold, rating upside hinges on our confidence they will maintain lower leverage after incorporating operating volatility and shareholder returns.”
Wynn Resorts’ current S&P Global rating stands at “BB-/stable”, while that for MGM Resorts International is at “B+/stable”. Melco Resorts (Macau)’s current rating is at “BB-/stable”, and Studio City Co Ltd is at “B+/stable”.
S&P Global stated: “The ratings on Melco Resorts (Macau) and Studio City [Co Ltd] are also a notch below pre-pandemic level given higher debt for new capacity during the pandemic.”
The institution said the Melco Resorts (Macau) ‘stable’ outlook anticipates that firm “will continue to deleverage to below 4.5x [in debt/EBITDA ratio] by the first half of 2026”.
