GGRAsia – Macau 4Q GGR to improve, volatility to remain: analysts

Macau 4Q GGR to improve, volatility to remain: analysts

Nov 02, 2022 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc expects Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the fourth quarter to be just above US$1.82 billion, down 23.5 percent year-on-year. That compares with a 70.4 percent year-on-year contraction in the third quarter.

The latest information on the outlook for the fourth quarter came after the October GGR data, released on Tuesday by the Macau casino regulator.

Macau’s October GGR rose by 31.6 percent month-on-month, to nearly MOP3.90 billion (US$482.3 million). It was a second instance of sequential monthly gain, after previous choppy performance in GGR amid periodic Covid-19 alerts and periodic adjustments to travel rules between Macau and mainland China.

Deutsche Bank expects Macau’s fourth-quarter mass-market GGR to be just above US$1.42 billion, which would be down 20.2 percent year-on-year; and VIP GGR to be US$411.7 million, down 32.9 percent from the prior-year quarter.

The update was provided soon after the mainland authorities announced that procedures for electronic issuance of visas for Macau trips by mainland China residents were resuming on November 1, including for tour groups.

Brokerage Jefferies LLC said in a Tuesday memo that Macau’s gaming revenue “continued to sequentially improve in October, albeit below consensus and industry estimates.”

“The news in isolation is neutral but other news that China is considering different reopening scenarios appears to be driving strength today, while recent quarantine policies for Macau are adding volatility to the recovery, especially as China has reactivated e-visa and group package tour bookings have resumed,” said the institution.

The brokerage stated that while group tours “are expected to start soon, no official date has been set”.

It added: “The timing of e-visa was earlier than our expectations as we were expecting group package tours first, followed by e-visa. E-visa visitors are the highest-value players in Macau while group package tours normally focus on shopping and eating.”

The update was issued as Macau again embarked on two rounds of mass testing of the city’s entire population, amid 10 confirmed cases of Macau people with Covid-19 infection. The first round concluded on Wednesday, with a second round scheduled for Friday and Saturday (November 4 and 5).