Macau April GGR better than historical trends: analysts

May 02, 2024 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck  

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Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in April was ahead of market expectation, and beat historical trends, according to several analysts. April GGR fell by 4.9 percent month-on-month to just under MOP18.55 billion (US$2.30 billion), according to official data. The result was up 26.0 percent from a year earlier.

April’s GGR result represents a 1.7-percent decline in average daily revenue relative to March, observed Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

“The 1.7-percent sequential contraction per day was better than historical trends, as the average sequential decline in April, relative to March, over the 2013 to 2019 period, was -4.1 percent,” said analyst Carlo Santarelli in a Wednesday note after the announcement of Macau’s April GGR.

Investment bank JP Morgan said in a Wednesday note that April’s tally “wasn’t too bad after all, with better-than-feared GGR”.

“GGR grew +26 percent year-on-year to MOP18.5 billion in April, implying a daily run-rate of MOP618 million and a 79 percent recovery versus pre-Covid, above the 75 percent recovery rate in fourth-quarter 2023 and first-quarter 2024,” wrote analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li.

The JP Morgan team said that as per its estimates, Macau’s mass-market GGR in April “recovered to 110-percent plus of pre-Covid levels, implying about 90 percent/130 percent recovery rates for grind/premium mass, respectively”.

“There was little change on the VIP side, still hovering at around mid-20-percents of recovery,” added the analysts.

Post the release of the April market tally, Deutsche Bank said it forecast May GGR in Macau to reach just under US$2.45 billion, which would represent a “monthly sequential per day increase of 2.0 percent,” versus “the 2.6 percent… sequential per-day improvement” seen on average for the month of May.

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