Consumer demand for Macau casino gambling remained “healthy” in the first eight days of June, said JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd in a Monday note.
“Based on our checks, gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first eight days of June was MOP5.2 billion [US$643.3 million] or MOP650 million a day,” wrote analysts DS Kim and Selina Li.
“Albeit lower than May – MOP684 million a day –, this is a very healthy level for shoulder months such as June, seemingly helped by G-Dragon concert as well as the Dragon Boat festival,” they added.
South Korean-pop superstar G-Dragon held two concerts on June 7 and 8 at The Galaxy Arena in Macau, part of the Galaxy Macau property run by Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd.
Macau recorded 390,422 visitor arrivals coinciding with a three-day Chinese mainland holiday as authorised by the State Council – May 31 to June 2 inclusive – marking this year’s Dragon Boat Festival.
The visitor tally was up 13.9 percent from the comparable period a year earlier, according to GGRAsia’s calculations based on official figures.
In Monday’s memo, JP Morgan observed: “Even assuming further moderation in the rest of the month – MOP600 million to MOP620 million a day –, June can see a rise of 4 percent to 7 percent year-on-year, in turn driving second-quarter GGR to grow 3 percent to 4 percent year-on-year and 1 percent to 2 percent quarter-on-quarter, versus the typical seasonality of minus 2 percent to 4 percent quarter-on-quarter.”
According to the analysts, Macau’s second-quarter GGR this year “is (very) likely to be the first ‘non-miss’ quarter in quite some time … following year-long” cuts to estimates by the investment community.
They added: “Not only have [market] expectations been reset lower, but underlying demand is also printing above-seasonal and (much) better-than-feared momentum in second-quarter-to-date.”
Macau’s casino GGR reached MOP21.19 billion in May, according to official data. May’s GGR figure was the highest monthly tally post-Covid, and was the first month this year above the MOP20.0-billion mark.
Earlier this month, the Macau government reduced by about 5 percent its forecast for the city’s 2025 GGR. The new estimate is MOP228 billion versus its projection of MOP240 billion made in November.
CreditSights Inc said in a recent note that the Macau government’s decision was “not a complete surprise,” given “the softer-than-required monthly GGR prints since the start of the year”.
“We view the new target as more conservative and in-line with the sector’s performance year-to-date,” said the CreditSights’ analysts.
