Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) was estimated at MOP12.5 billion (US$1.5 billion) for the first 21 days of April, or MOP595 million a day, a print that is “in line with historical seasonality,” said JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd in a Monday memo, citing its own industry checks.
The observed daily run-rate in April was down 5.4 percent month-on-month compared to March’s MOP629 million.
“Last week’s run rate [in terms of average daily GGR] was MOP600 million, stable from a week ago. By segment, mass GGR – including slots – seems to be tracking at 110 percent plus mark versus pre-Covid levels, versus a mid-20-percent recovery in VIP volumes – all pretty much stable from first-quarter trends,” wrote JP Morgan’s analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li.
The analysts suggested that there would be some “divergence” in terms of the sequential performance in the first-quarter earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for Macau’s six casino operators.
The brokerage said it expected Wynn Macau Ltd, MGM China Holdings Ltd and SJM Holdings Ltd to “print strong double-digit growth” quarter-on-quarter in terms of EBITDA. That contrasts with the other three operators – Sands China Ltd, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd – which might report a “sequential pull-back” in EBITDA, down by “2 percent to 8 percent” quarter-on-quarter, it added.
Sands China Ltd saw its first-quarter adjusted property EBITDA fall by 6.7 percent quarter-on-quarter, to US$610 million.
“This, in our view, happens as the industry recovery stabilises at around current levels, which in turns makes the idiosyncratic factors (market shares, operational expenditure control, promotions) to be the key earnings driver for each operator, as opposed to the pace of industry recovery itself,” the JP Morgan team stated.
