Growth in the Macau gaming sector’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) should accelerate in 2026, amid a “steady” competitive environment, and as operators increase focus on “cost optimisation”. So suggests investment bank UBS, in an update on the sector.
UBS estimates Macau’s market-wide casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for full-year 2026 will track 5-percent growth year-on-year, while it thinks the sector’s adjusted EBITDA will rise circa 6 percent year-on-year. The latter had been flat in 2025.
The institution stated: “We continue to forecast 2026 GGR growth of 5 percent year-on-year, with growth to be weighted towards first half of 2026 at circa 8 percent year-on-year, due to favourable base effects,” though it anticipates GGR expansion will “moderate to circa 3 percent year-on-year in second half of 2026”.
UBS said it expected growth in gaming revenue to be led by “premium segments”, supported by “marketing initiatives” from the industry, as well as more hotel-suite offerings and operators’ “optimisation in reinvestment strategies”.
The investment bank’s projection for the Macau gaming sector’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA was nonetheless lowered by circa 2 percent from its previous estimate. It attributed that to “higher” industry operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2025.
UBS nonetheless stated: “We expect margins to remain largely steady in 2026, supported by a steady competition environment and cost optimisation.
“This should drive an acceleration in sector luck-adjusted EBITDA growth to circa 6 percent year-on-year in 2026 (versus flat in 2025).”
UBS also noted: “Operators are shifting focus from property upgrades and amenity additions towards cost and reinvestment optimisation this year.
“Management indicates that these enhancements are enabled by the full deployment of smart tables and increased availability of premium suites, which should enhance customer profiling capabilities and improve promotional efficiency.”
The institution further observed: “Operators are seeking to improve event effectiveness,” following several years of insights gained from operational experience.
It added: “With licence-related spending commitments remaining on track, these should support margin trends to remain steady in 2026.”
