Macau’s daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) “normalised” last week relative to a “post-holiday slowdown” the week before that, suggests a Tuesday note from JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd.
It estimated on that basis, that October GGR would be at least MOP18.5 billion (US$2.30 billion). Such a result would represent the best monthly performance since January 2020, at the very beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, when the city’s GGR stood at MOP22.13 billion.
Citing the institution’s “checks”, GGR in the first 23 days of October was estimated at MOP14.6 billion, or MOP635 million per day.
“This implies last week’s run-rate has normalised back to MOP575 million per day, up 20 percent week-on-week from the post-holiday slowdown,” wrote analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li.
They were referring to the autumn Golden Week holiday marked in mainland China, Macau’s main feeder market. This year the festivities included the Mid-Autumn Festival, and ran for eight days, concluding on October 6.
Last week banking institution Citigroup Inc had observed in a note, that Macau GGR appeared to have reduced “considerably” in the second week of October. The bank also cited Typhoon Koinu that week as a factor, due to transport disruption.
In Tuesday’s note, JP Morgan stated that the apparent GGR rebound in the third week of October was “not surprising, but still assuring,” adding that the month was “quite comfortably” seen as “on track to hit another post-pandemic high”.
The brokerage said it was sticking to its existing market-wide forecast for Macau’s October GGR at MOP18.5 billion to MOP19 billion, “implying 72 percent of October 2019 levels, led by a 100-percent plus recovery” in mass-market play and a “circa 25 percent” recovery in VIP gambling.
