Macau casino gross gaming (GGR) could expand by 9 percent-plus year-on-year in the second half, forecasts Seaport Research Partners.
This was due to the fact that “growth has reaccelerated in the last few months,” said senior analyst Vitaly Umansky in a Monday note.
Second-half 2024 GGR was just under MOP113.03 billion (US$13.98 billion), according to data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
“In Macau, we now forecast GGR growth of 7 percent” for full-year 2025, stated Mr Umansky in his Monday update. The city’s full-year 2024 GGR came in at just over MOP226.78 billion.
Macau’s 2025 GGR performance could be followed by “7 percent growth” in Macau GGR for “the next several years, which should lead to EBITDA CAGR of 9 percent,” added Mr Umansky. That was a reference to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Macau-industry earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
Mr Umansky further observed: “Longer term, market share shifts would benefit Sands [China Ltd] and Galaxy [Entertainment Group Ltd], while smaller operators should see share loss: this could be more impacted if base mass recovery is stronger than we currently forecast.” The latter would mean for the Macau sector, “higher overall growth”, he stated.
The memo added that Seaport’s view of gaming was “largely driven by long-term secular growth in the Macau and Singapore markets” – the latter a casino duopoly – and, for Wynn Resorts Ltd, “the opportunity in UAE”.
That was a reference secondly to Resorts World Sentosa, promoted by Genting Singapore Ltd, and Marina Bay Sands, promoted by Las Vegas Sands Corp, parent of Macau operator Sands China. Both the Singapore properties are undergoing multibillion U.S. dollar revamps and expansions of facilities.
Wynn Resorts, parent of Macau operator Wynn Macau Ltd, is developing with local partners and will eventually run the Wynn Al Marjan Island casino resort in Ras Al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Wynn parent has mentioned a 2027 launch for the property.
Mr Umansky stated in his Monday update: “While 2025 had started softly in Macau, our expectation for a summer pickup and strength in the second half is bearing fruit, and we continue to see Macau as a secular long-term growth market.”
The analyst made reference to China’s economic outlook, and the fact two of Macau’s operators – MGM China Holdings Ltd and Wynn Macau Ltd – are majority-owned by respective U.S. operators MGM Resorts International and Wynn Resorts.
Mr Umansky stated: “Concerns around China macro and the U.S. gaming slowdown remain headwinds, with the former concerns likely outweighed by improving sentiment and stimulus.”
