Banking institution Citigroup says its latest monthly survey of Macau casinos “likely indicates that not all of the new incremental players” in the local market are “whales”, i.e., players described as having a bet size of HKD100,000 (US$12,846) or more.
But, it added in a Sunday memo, “more importantly the higher number of premium-mass players more than offset the lower average wager, translating into higher total wager”.
While the premium-mass continues to grow, the 9-percent year-on-year lower average minimum bet “suggests that spending power among the grind mass players has declined”.
“We are keeping our March 2025 GGR [gross gaming revenue] forecast unchanged at MOP19.5 billion [US$2.44 billion], flat year-on-year,” wrote analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
According to Citi, total wager observed in this month’s survey in Macau amounted to HKD11.4 million, 13-percent higher versus March 2024, at HKD10.0 million.
“The number of premium-mass players seen amounted to 645, 34-percent higher versus March 2024,” stated the institution.
“This implies that average wager/player fell 15 percent year-on-year to HKD17,700. While the number of whales … we saw this month was flat year-on-year at 20,” said Citi.
It added: “The player of the month showed up at Wynn Palace’s Chairman Club with a HKD500,000 bet.”
According to the bank, the 20 whales observed in the March survey “wagered an average of HKD179,500, up 5 percent year-on-year”.
“We are encouraged to see that whales in Macau are holding up in both quantity and in quality,” wrote the Citi analysts.
The analysts stated: “On the other hand, the 625 other premium-mass players – wagering less than HKD100,000 a hand – bet an average of HKD12,430, down 13 percent year-on-year.
“However, such weakness was more than offset by the 35-percent year-on-year increase in the number of non-whales. Our data are telling us that Macau is getting more pemium-mass players,” said Mr Choi and Mr Chau.
The fact that not all premium-mass players going to Macau are whales could “dilute the overall premium mass number” in the market, noted the Citi analysts.
They added: “In our view, so long as the increase in foot traffic is sufficient to overcome the weaker size dilution – and our March 2025 survey says that total wager by non-whales rose 18 percent year-on-year to HKD7.8 million –, we believe premium mass will remain and stay as the main growth driver for Macau GGR.”
