Banking institution Citigroup says its latest monthly survey of Macau casinos indicates that the premium-mass segment “remains robust”, with signs of recovery also seen in the grind mass business.
“Perhaps because we conducted our September 2025 survey right after school started, the number of premium mass players seen fell 18 percent year-on-year,” wrote analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau in a Sunday memo.
They added: “However, the 27-percent year-on-year increase in average wager per player – a metric to measure player quality – more than offsets it, translating to a 3-percent year-on-year increase in total premium mass wager observed.”
According to the institution, the average wager per player rose to HKD24,550 (US$3,150) in the latest survey, versus HKD19,389 a year earlier. The total wager observed by the Citi analysts in September this year amounted to HKD12.3 million.
The number of premium-mass players seen in this month’s survey amounted to 500, stated the team.
The analysts added that the average mass baccarat minimum bet “rose 5 percent year-on-year to HKD2,016” in September, “making it the second straight month with year-on-year improvements”.
“We believe this is a sign suggesting a recovery even in grind mass,” observed Mr Choi and Mr Chau.
The Citi analysts said it was “encouraging” to run into a HKD2-million wagering player in what they described as a “seasonally slow month”.
“Net-net, our survey suggests that premium mass demand remains robust. Our on-the-ground observations also suggest that competitive intensity amongst the six operators remains manageable,” they added.
The analysts said they saw 27 whales in this month’s survey, versus 21 in September 2024. The bank defines whales as patrons with a bet size of HKD100,000 or more.
“The player of the month was seen at the Venetian [Macao] high limit area,” a property run by Sands China Ltd, noted the institution. “Playing at a reserved table, this player wagered HKD2 million,” stated the analysts.
They added: “This is the fifth time over the past six months that the wager by the player of the month exceeded HKD1 million.”
As per Sunday’s note, “thanks to the … HKD2-million whale,” Sands China ranked number one in Citi’s premium mass September survey, “with a 35-percent market share in total wager observed”.
Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd “ranked number two in our premium-mass survey with a respectable 20 percent market share in total wager observed,” said the analysts.
The institution also said that MGM China Holdings Ltd could eventually gain some market share via new marketing strategies.
“It looks like MGM is the first casino operator to offer mini Labubu for point redemption by players, impressively only a few days after mini Labubu was launched on August 29,” said the analysts, referring to the new mini plush dolls by collectible toy brand Pop Mart.
They further stated: “Also, to encourage players to wager more on side bets, MGM is doing a lucky draw in which players wagering HKD5,000 or more on side bets a hand will get a chance to win a Rolex Daytona.”
“In our view, these latest moves are cost-effective ways that should help MGM at least defend – if not gain – market share, despite the ramp-up of Sands China’s Londoner Grand and Galaxy’s Capella,” the Citi analysts added.
