Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for September is likely to be down 6 percent month-on-month, says a note from Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd, though it added that the effects of Typhoon Saola on September 1 and 2 “could result in even weaker GGR”.
Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung estimated September GGR would be at MOP16.1 billion (US$1.99 billion), or about MOP537 million per day, observing that “September is normally a weaker month” than the August holiday season, “at minus 9 percent month-on-month on average”.
“We think the market will look beyond both August and September GGR and focus on the forward bookings of October Golden Week,” added the Morgan Stanley team.
China’s State Council has designated September 29 to October 6 inclusive this year as the holiday period popularly known as October Golden Week. This year, the period encompasses the lunar-calendar based Mid-Autumn Festival, falling on September 29, and China’s National Day on October 1.
In terms of the influence of Typhoon Saola on Macau’s September GGR, any typhoon resulting in Signal No.8 or higher leads to a suspension of public transport within the city, as well as ferry services to Macau, and closure of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, thus disrupting the flow of tourists to Macau.
Morgan Stanley’s note was issued on Friday. The typhoon saw the number 10 signal raised in the overnight Friday (September 1) to early Saturday period, leading to the temporary closure of the city’s gaming venues for about nine hours, as a precautionary measure.
