Brokerage Jefferies Hong Kong Ltd expects year-on-year growth in Macau mass-market gross gaming revenue (GGR) to speed to 6.6 percent in 2026, compared to its calculated 4.3 percent growth in 2025. It gave the estimate in a Tuesday note.
The institution thinks VIP GGR growth will slow from 24.1 percent year-on-year in 2025 to 2.0 percent in 2026.
That would put mass GGR for 2026 at just over MOP191.26 billion (US$23.82 billion) and VIP GGR at just above MOP69.34 billion.
Banking institution Citigroup recently reported a 72.3 percent year-on-year increase in the observed volume of betting by ‘whales’ – high-value players – in the Macau casino market, in its January table survey.
Banking group JP Morgan recently cut its Macau-market 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, depreciation and amortisation forecast, citing adverse play mix – including lower-margin “super-premium and premium play” – and operating costs
Macau government data issued on Friday showed GGR for VIP baccarat – a traditional play format for ‘whales’ – went up circa 20 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter, and rose 3.7 percentage points in terms of market share of GGR, to 30.7 percent.
Jefferies’ Tuesday memo also gave the institution’s view on fourth-quarter 2025 earnings.
Macau’s casino sector is likely to have registered “improvement” in profitability in the fourth quarter versus the third, said the institution.
On that topic, its analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei stated: “We expect improvement versus third-quarter 2025, which was impacted by two typhoons, though partially offset by rising competition as Sands China [Ltd] and Wynn [Macau Ltd] stepped up incentives in this quarter.”
That was a reference first to tropical storms that when they reach Signal No. 8 or above trigger the cancellation of public transport into, out of, and across Macau. The second reference was to incentives offered by casino operators to retain or attract gamblers.
A number of brokerages has recently mentioned a raft of cost pressures on Macau’s six operators during the 2025 trading year and into 2026.
For its part, Jefferies expects for the pending fourth-quarter earnings season that MGM China Holdings Ltd will have gained 0.7 percentage points of GGR market share sequentially, to 16.5 percent. The brokerage thinks Wynn Macau Ltd will have shed 1.0 percentage point, putting it on 12.2 percent, and that SJM Holdings Ltd will have lost 1.2 percentage points of share, at 10.7 percent.
Jefferies added that Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, “as the two major mass players, likely benefitted from strong traffic during National Golden Week and the National Games of China.”
Those were references respectively to a holiday period of the Chinese mainland in October, and a national sporting event co-hosted by Macau, Hong Kong and Guangdong province during November.
Jefferies puts Sands China’s fourth-quarter GGR market share at 24.4 percent, up 0.5 percentage points sequentially, and Galaxy Entertainment on 22.1 percent, up 1.7 percentage points.
