DigiPlus Interactive Corp, an online gambling and bingo operator in the Philippines, could see an 18-percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) during the fiscal years 2025 to 2028.
That is according to a Wednesday memo from Maybank Securities Inc, initiating coverage of the gaming group’s Manila-listed stock.
Analyst Raffy Mendoza said that the 18 percent CAGR in EBITDA would be “driven by top-line growth as we expect monthly active users and ARPU [average revenue per user] to recover; and EBITDA margin of 19.6 percent”.
Active users and average revenue had seen depressed levels this year, associated with scrutiny of, and tightening contros on, Phillippines domestic online gambling, he observed.
Maybank said its forecast did not factor DigiPlus’ currently-paused operations platform in Brazil, where it was recently-awarded an online licence, and a possible opportunity for expansion into South Africa.
Maybank said DigiPlus was a “market leader in online gambling,” understood to be a reference to the Philippines operations.
DigiPlus may see its 2025 full-year EBITDA at PHP14.64 billion (US$249.11 million), but with the second half of the year registering a “weaker performance”.
The full-year 2025 EBITDA forecast, if realised, would represent a 5.1-percent year-on-year growth.
“For fiscal year 2026, we forecast earnings growth of 21 percent year-on-year to PHP17.8 billion [in EBITDA] as we expect a gradual recovery back to first half of 2025 levels in terms of monthly active users and ARPUs by fourth quarter of 2026,” Maybank said.
The institution observed that over 90 percent of the company’s revenue comes from online gambling, a business segment where it has “over 1,000” e-casino games across its platforms developed by international gaming providers.
As of the first half of this year, DigiPlus had over 40 million registered users across its online gambling platforms, of which circa 8.5 million were monthly active users, Mr Mendoza noted.
“The online business revenue mix comprises 70 percent to 75 percent from e-casino games, 10 percent to 21 percent from e-bingo, 10 percent from ArenaPlus, with the rest from GameZone,” his memo stated. ArenaPlus is DigiPlus’s sportsbook, while GameZone is a platform for casual and arcade gaming.
Sector contribution to GDP
DigiPlus also owns and operates bingo parlours and e-games branches across Philippines, with 137 sites in operation “at full capacity” as of first half of this year, the memo noted.
Key downside risks for DigiPlus would be: any changes in the Philippines’ gaming regulatory setup that could impact player behaviour; increased competition from new operators; and any “proliferation” of illegal online gambling sites, Maybank suggested.
“Such risks are evident when the [DigiPlus] share price dropped from its high of PHP65.30 [on] June 11, to as low as PHP13.68 [on] July 18,” amid some calls for “a total online gambling ban,” remarked Mr Mendoza.
Maybank thinks that while a total shutdown “is unlikely”, possibly “tighter regulations must be in place”.
The Philippines saw the contribution of e-games gross gaming revenue (GGR) to its gross domestic product (GDP) growing “steadily” – accounting for about 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2023, to 0.84 percent in the second quarter of this year – noted Mr Mendoza.
In 2024, full-year e-games GGR market-wide in the Philippines reached US$2.3 billion, about 0.51 percent of the country’s GDP that year, said Maybank, citing the country’s government, other bodies, and its own research.
“While this ratio may seem low, it is much higher compared to developed markets around the world [also] with legal online gambling,” and where e-games GGR as a percentage of GDP “ranged from 0.04 percent to 0.30 percent in fiscal year 2024,” the Maybank analyst suggested. He was referring to the gaming markets of Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States.
