Brokerage Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd has reduced by 17 percent and 3 percent respectively, its forecast for Macau-market casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for this year and 2023.
“Our forecasts assume travel restrictions between Macau and the mainland continue in fourth quarter 2022 and first quarter 2023,” said the Tuesday memo from analysts Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung.
The institution now thinks 2022 GGR will be just under MOP44.93 billion (US$5.56 billion), which would be circa 15 percent of that for 2019, the last year of pre-pandemic trading. Morgan Stanley estimates 2023 Macau GGR will be MOP124.29 billion, or about 43 percent of 2019’s levels.
It observed that its estimates were respectively 21 percent and 12 percent below market consensus.
The Morgan Stanley analysts added that investors in the sector were hoping that “two events” in November this year “could help sentiment”.
The first was a possible announcement on the six successful bidders among the seven entities each vying for a 10-year Macau gaming concession. The Macau authorities have stated they aim to have up to six new concessions, starting from January 1, 2023.
The second was the “potential gradual resumption of e-IVS and package tours for mainland Chinese to Macau, which was announced by Macau’s Chief Executive”.
That was a reference to China’s Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) exit visas for independent travellers to come to Macau. It is one form of independent-travel visa set to return to an electronic issuance system, rather than in-person issuance; the latter system said to be slower with approvals.
Management at current Macau licensee Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd said recently in comments to investors that package tours from the Chinese mainland – which have been suspended since early 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic – might restart before eVisas, as a way for the mainland authorities to help Macau’s small businesses first, before the big casino operators.
