Pro-tourism policies by the Philippines government “should provide growth” for the sector this year, suggests a Thursday report from Maybank Securities Inc.
Favourable factors would include the expansion of the country’s electronic visa (e-Visa) programme, which currently covers 12 nationalities. Chinese and Indian nationals had joined the list with effect from November 2025, and this would have the impact of “back-loading gains into early 2026,” wrote Maybank analyst Ronalyn Joyce Lalimo.
Separately, a value-added-tax refund scheme – expected to be in place by late 2026 – could add PHP8.6 billion (US$144.8 million) to PHP12.8 billion per year, “and lift retail spending,” she added.
According to the institution’s estimate, 2025 foreign arrivals “were flat year-on-year, at around 5.6 million as of December 2025.
The Philippines received circa 5.4 million foreign tourists in full-year 2024, up 8.7 percent from a year earlier. The figure fell short of the 7.7-million target for 2024 that had been set by the local authorities.
As per data disclosed by the country’s Department of Tourism (DOT), foreign arrivals reached about 5.6 million as of December-end, below the 8.4-million target for full-year 2025.
“For 2026, the path forward is about execution. Achieving the DOT’s 6.7-million arrivals target by 2026 depends on two key levers: pro-tourism policies (e-visas expansion, VAT refund); and expanding airport capacity,” stated the analyst.
Until then, domestic tourism “will remain the core engine of the 2026 recovery,” noted Maybank.
The institution added that domestic tourism spending is “expected to continue to account for circa 12 percent of household consumption,” and that tourism’s gross domestic product (GDP) share was “on track to reach about 9 percent by 2026”.
The bank noted that capacity constraints were easing, with 2026 “marking the start of a multi-year [capacity] lift” at various airports.
Such upgrades “could raise airport capacity by 248 percent to 122 million passengers by 2027–2028, though full benefits will materialise post-2028,” suggested Ms Lalimo.
She added: “In the near term, the staged rollout should enable incremental route and frequency additions, while longer inter-island stays support yield-led 2026 growth rather than volume expansion.”
On Thursday, the Philippines government announced that Chinese nationals will be allowed to enter and stay in the country without a visa for up to 14 days starting from Friday, January 16.
The 14-day visa-waiver programme – for tourism or business purposes – will apply only to those entering via either Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Metro Manila, or Mactan-Cebu International Airport on the island of Cebu.
