Sands China Ltd will in likelihood gain market share in the Macau gaming sector during 2026, which could support “dividend normalisation”, says brokerage JP Morgan Securities.
“We (still) see Sands gaining share in 2026 and paying HKD1.0 [US$0.13] per annum dividend per share (implying a 5.5 percent-plus yield at current price) this year,” wrote analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian in a Tuesday memo.
The analysts noted, referring to the casino firm’s performance in the three months to December 31: “We do not see the weak fourth quarter derailing its path towards dividend normalisation, still forecasting HKD0.5 for first-half calendar-year 2026… or HKD1.0 per annum for calendar-year 2026.”
Seaport Research Partners’ senior analyst Vitaly Umansky mentioned in a Monday note: “Sands China will likely increase its dividend as business improves.”
JP Morgan observed in its memo, to back its suggestion of stronger Sands China business this year: “Fourth-quarter softness was largely seasonal (e.g., NBA preseason) or non‑recurring (poor mass‑hold, National Games).”
Some of those fourth-quarter costs were associated with Sands China hosting preseason games for the National Basketball Association (NBA) in mid-October, and to Macau’s joint hosting in November of the 15th National Games of the People’s Republic of China. Aside from the six Macau casino concessionaires pledging funds to support the National Games, some also provided facilities to host certain sporting events.
JP Morgan had mentioned in a January 29 note that Sands China’s fourth-quarter margin on earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) had been “really bad”.
In February last year, Hong Kong-listed Sands China had declared a final dividend of HKD0.25 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024. It was its first dividend for five years, following the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. For 2018, the company had recommended a final dividend of HKD1.00 per share.
