Brokerage JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd says that – based on its own checks – it estimates casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau for the first five days of March at MOP1.8 billion (US$222.6 million), or MOP360 million a day.
“This is more or less in line with [the first] two months of 2023 trends of MOP370 million a day,” wrote analysts DS Kim and Mufan Shi.
They added: “The print represents a 40 to 45 percent recovery versus pre-Covid-19 levels for headline GGR, in turn suggesting mass GGR probably recovered to 60 to 70 percent of pre-Covid levels.”
The brokerage nonetheless recalled that March was a “seasonally (very) volatile period” for high-end demand, both VIP and premium mass, given the meetings of the National People’s Congress taking place in Beijing. The financial institution also noted that it “wouldn’t extrapolate” based on “just five days’ data”.
“We envision a goldilocks rally where the stocks could grind higher quarter after quarter as more and more investors (particularly long-onlys) come back to invest in this space, following four/five years of lull amidst concerns on licence risk, VIP clampdown, Hong Kong unrest, and Covid-19,” stated the JP Morgan team.
February GGR fell by 10.8 percent month-on-month, to MOP10.32 billion (US$1.28 billion) but was up 33.1 percent year-on-year.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc has upped its estimate for Macau’s 2023 casino GGR by US$690.1 million, or 3.3 percent, relative to a forecast it issued in November, a period prior to easing of Covid-related travel restrictions for mainland China, Macau, and Hong Kong.
