Macau is likely to see circa 28 percent year-on-year growth in casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) this year, and 10 percent growth in 2025, says a Thursday update from Fitch Ratings Inc.
Using its 2024 estimate as a basis – a figure Fitch maintains from an assessment it issued in the first quarter – would put Macau 2025 GGR at around MOP258.00 billion (US$32.08 billion).
That would be about 88.0 percent of the city’s pre-pandemic 2019 GGR, which stood at just under MOP292.46 billion, according to data from Macau’s regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
In March, Fitch had said it was likely Macau’s 2024 GGR would recover to circa 80 percent of the pre-pandemic trading year of 2019.
On that basis, Macau’s GGR would be circa MOP234.00 billion in 2024, a nearly 28-percent increase from last year, suggested Fitch. The city’s 2023 GGR was confirmed as just under MOP183.06 billion.
Nonetheless, the rating agency has revised downward its forecast for this year and next regarding Malaysia GGR, where the market has a monopoly casino operation, Resorts World Genting, run by Genting Malaysia Bhd.
There, Fitch anticipates 2024 GGR year-on-year growth will be only 2.0 percent, compared to its previous estimate of 8.0 percent. But its 2025 growth forecast is up 1 percentage point, to 10.0 percent, from 9.0 percent.
At the end of May, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd forecast that total 2024 group revenue for Genting Malaysia – which also runs venues in the United States, the Bahamas, the United Kingdom and Egypt – would be just under MYR10.54 billion (US$2.23 billion). That would be a 3.4-percent improvement on 2023’s MYR10.19 billion.
Maybank forecast 2025 group revenue for Genting Malaysia at MYR11.49 billion, which would be a 9.0 percent year-on-year gain from the 2024 estimate.
For the Singapore casino market, Fitch’s 2024 estimate is for 5.0 percent year-on-year expansion, versus its previous projection of 15.0 percent. The institution thinks 2025 GGR growth in the city state will be 3.0 percent, down from its prior forecast of 4.0 percent.
Singapore is a duopoly involving Resorts World Sentosa, run by Genting Singapore Ltd, and Marina Bay Sands, controlled by Las Vegas Sands Corp. The latter company also runs casinos in Macau via its Sands China Ltd unit.
A recent regulatory-risk report from the Singapore government said that market GGR was SGD5.26 billion (US$3.87 billion) in 2023.
