Having casinos in Thailand is part of a strategy for the authorities to formalise and tax the country’s “underground” economy that currently overall could be as much as 50 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Legal casinos could add “0.3 percent to 1 percent to GDP and boost tax revenue by 0.4 percent to 1.2 percent,” says a Wednesday report from banking group JP Morgan.
“Casinos in Thailand” as a policy goal “have turned from not being mentioned under former prime minister Srettha [Thavisin’s] policy statement in September 2023 to becoming an urgent policy under the new prime minister Paetongtarn [Shinawatra], as part of the “Entertainment Complex (EC) Bill,” said JP Morgan in a 25-page report.
The banking group observed: “The aim is to expand the tax base by formalising a large underground economy (estimated at approximately 50 percent of GDP, including approximately 0.6 percent from on-site gambling), and to attract more foreign tourists and foreign direct investors.”
The report authors suggested the draft legislation was “modelled after Singapore”. The latter nation had specifically mentioned a wish to boost its GDP and to refresh the appeal of its tourism sector when it legalised casino business in the first decade of this century.
Regarding Thailand’s push, JP Morgan said the drafted bill had “completed the public hearing process” and was “expected to be tabled for parliamentary discussion later this year, with potential commercial operations beginning in 2032-33”.
The institution mentioned eight places that might seek to host a casino – four in greater Bangkok and four outside the capital.
The institution stated: “Benchmarking the Singapore market, we estimate Bangkok casinos could offer US$1.5 billion to US$5 billion in revenue and US$0.4 billion to US$1.5 billion in EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxation and depreciation], with an internal rate of return range of 12 percent to 29 percent”.
The bank said it expected a legalised Thai casino sector “to attract strong interest from both global/regional operators, as well as Thai consumer and commercial property companies”.
The institution mentioned six organisations that had expressed positive interest in Thailand.
The bank mentioned the Royal Turf Club of Thailand, with “plans to invest THB200 billion [US$6.21 billion currently] on a vast entertainment complex in potential partnership with the Royal Sports Complex and other foreign partners”.
Also on JP Morgan’s list was Macau casino operator Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, as well as United States-based Hard Rock International.
Hard Rock Asia president Edward Tracy has stated that Hardrock International is “absolutely interested” in Thailand.
Las Vegas Sands Corp, the parent of Macau concessionaire Sands China Ltd, is also on JP Morgan’s list of contenders, with Las Vegas Sands’ chairman and chief executive Robert Goldstein having “confirmed the company’s interest in Thailand.”
JP Morgan also noted that MGM Resorts International CEO and president Bill Hornbuckle expressed the group’s “interest in Thailand” via its Macau operating entity MGM China Holdings Ltd, and that the parent was “planning to conduct a feasibility study”.
JP Morgan additionally observed that Wynn Resorts Ltd chairman and CEO Craig Billings “has announced interest and is actively considering options to establish casinos in Thailand”. Wynn Resorts is parent of Macau operator Wynn Macau Ltd.
Investment bank Morgan Stanley suggested in a recent report that a legalised casino industry in Thailand could generate “US$4 billion to US$6 billion” in annual GGR.
