CreditSights Inc says it expects Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to exceed the local government’s 2025 target and reach MOP245.0 billion (US$30.5 billion).
That assumes “further improvements in tourist arrivals and a slight increase in GGR per visitor in 2025,” stated CreditSights, a division of the Fitch group, in a research paper issued on Thursday.
It anticipated that hotel occupancy in Macau to improve this year “with the completion of casino renovations and room conversions”.
“We expect Macau’s GGR to slightly exceed the 2025 target of MOP240 billion and reach MOP245 billion,” wrote analysts Nicholas Chen, David Bussey, and Zerlina Zeng.
The Macau government forecast MOP240 billion for casino GGR as part of its 2025 budget. Casino GGR for calendar year 2024 stood at MOP226.78 billion, up by 23.9 percent year-on-year.
CreditSights expects Macau’s casino GGR growth in 2025 to “slightly moderate to 8 percent year-on-year”, to make the annual tally about 84 percent of the pre-pandemic trading year of 2019.
“This projection assumes that visitations in 2025 will improve to around 94 percent of 2019 levels … and GGR per visitor posts a modest 2-percent year-on-year increase to MOP6,606, from MOP6,493 in 2024,” said the institution.
CreditSights said there were “potential challenges” to Macau’s casino industry, namely from “China’s slowing gross domestic product growth” and “sluggish domestic consumption”.
Nonetheless, it added, there were a “few positive catalysts” that would “support Macau’s gaming sector” in 2025.
These included “easing travel restrictions, with more cities added to the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS)”, further completion of casino renovations, room conversions, and entertainment offerings, and “improving consumer sentiment due to the recent macro support policies from Chinese authorities,” stated the institution.
Overall visitor arrivals to Macau in 2024 were just under 34.93 million, an increase of 23.8 percent year-on-year, according to official data.
Macau’s tourism boss said recently that Macau might be able to draw “38 million to 39 million” visitors this year, a level “very close” to 2019 levels, with additional volume of arrivals from neighbouring city Zhuhai – amid mainland exit-visa policy easing – being a key factor.
