Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in January will in likelihood “be materially better than December,” suggested a Monday note from Seaport Research Partners.
“We forecast January to rise 6.6 percent year-on-year, plus 13.3 percent month-on-month,” wrote analyst Vitaly Umansky in the memo. The analyst mentioned the impact the “Lunar New Year holiday period,” which it said, “will run from January 28 to February 3”.
“We currently forecast first-quarter GGR at plus 4.2 percent year-on-year, plus 4.0 percent quarter-on-quarter. The first-quarter 4.2-percent year-on-year increase is weaker than the plus 6.1 percent year-on-year in fourth-quarter 2024, as year-on-year comparisons are becoming more difficult,” said Mr Umansky.
He added: “However, we still see continued growth in the industry through all of 2025 and currently estimate 8 percent year-on-year growth.”
The institution said it did not expect “any negative pronouncements with respect to Macau coming from China in the foreseeable future”.
It added: “Continued announcements of new China stimulus provisions should lead to an improvement in economic activity and consumer confidence in China in 2025.”
According to Seaport, “fiscal stimulus – e.g., higher government spending [in China] – and regulatory easing measures will be important in building consumer and business confidence.”
Mr Umansky wrote: “Our view on China economic strengthening and corresponding improvement in consumer and business sentiment could lead to stronger base mass recovery – with continued premium growth – in 2025, which leads to our estimate of 2025 GGR growth of 8 percent.”
He added: “If the Chinese economy improves more than expected and/or if base mass recovers more strongly, the year-on-year growth would be higher.”
The Seaport analyst said fourth-quarter casino GGR in Macau was “weaker than expected,” as “December GGR underwhelmed” at MOP18.20 billion (US$27 billion), as the month was “soft during the first three weeks” and was “negatively impacted by the three-day visit to Macau by China President Xi Jinping”.
Fourth-quarter GGR in Macau was nearly MOP57.43 billion, “with mass GGR comprising over 88 percent of the total,” suggested the institution.
