Casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau fell by 5.6 percent year-on-year in January to just above MOP18.25 billion (US$2.27 billion), according to data released on Saturday by the city’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
The January result was up 0.3 percent compared to December’s MOP18.20 billion.
JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd said in a Saturday memo that Macau’s January GGR performance “was soft”.
“According to our checks, there was a very noticeable pre-holiday slowdown this year, with a lull in traffic from the last weekend, particularly affecting large properties,” wrote analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li.
“This led to the GGR shortfall despite a strong performance in the first half of the month,” they added.
The lunar new year start fell on January 29. China’s State Council has declared the mainland holiday – this time marking the Year of the Snake – as an eight-day period running from January 28 to February 4 inclusive.
The festivities are a period for peak demand in Macau’s tourism and gaming markets.
According to JP Morgan, January’s GGR tally “indicates 110-percent-plus recovery in mass versus circa 20 percent in VIP, if compared to pre-Covid levels”. Such levels, it added, were “similar to the recovery rates in fourth-quarter 2024”.
The brokerage observed that visitor arrivals to Macau “rebounded sharply” from January 31, the fourth day of the Lunar New Year holiday break.
“Our checks on booking quality also appear solid. Put differently, the jury is still out there if January’s miss was a temporary blip or indicative of a lasting trend,” stated the JP Morgan team.
“We believe the bogey for the print is set at around MOP800 million to MOP850 million a day” for 1 to 9 February GGR, implying “a run-rate of over MOP1,000 million a day during peak holidays,” it added.
JP Morgan expects February GGR to grow 3 percent to 5 percent year-on-year, to about MOP19-billion-plus, “implying GGR for the first two months of 2025 will remain flattish year-on-year, against the relatively tough comparison”.
The brokerage stated: “This can still allow the industry to grow GGR by circa 5 percent in 2025, to meet our forecasts, likely accelerating growth rates in the latter half of the year on easier comparisons.”
Macau’s accumulated casino GGR for full-year 2024 stood at MOP226.78 billion, up 23.9 percent year-on-year, according to official data.
