The “optimal” mix for live-table baccarat side bets in the Macau casino market is still a work in progress for the city’s gaming operators, says leading industry scholar Ryan Ho Hong Wai, in comments to GGRAsia.
Baccarat side bets – liked by the industry for boosting house edge, according to data compiled by Mr Ho (see table below) – have been widely implemented in Macau since 2024, and supported by ‘smart’ table technology. Industry analysts say such side bets have been popular among players.
| Betting propositions | Pays | Theoretical house edge | |
| Traditional baccarat | Banker | 0.95 to 1 | 1.06% |
| Player | 1 to 1 | 1.24% | |
| No commission baccarat | Banker | 1 to 1 (banker wins except on 6) 0.5 to 1 (banker wins on 6) | 1.46% |
| Player | 1 to 1 | 1.24% | |
| Baccarat side bets | Tie bet | 8 to 1 | 14.36% |
| Pair bet | 11 to 1 | 10.36% | |
| Lucky 6 | 12/20 to 1 (banker wins on 6 with two or three cards) | 16.68% | |
| Small Lucky 6 | 22 to 1 (banker wins on 6 with two cards) | 14.33% | |
| Big Lucky 6 | 50 to 1 (banker wins on 6 with three cards) | 15.25% | |
| Lucky 7 | 6/15 to 1 (player wins on 7 with two or three cards) | 18.30% | |
| 2-card Lucky 7 (Small Lucky 7) | 15 to 1 (player wins on 7 with two cards) | 13.05% | |
| 3-card Lucky 7 (Big Lucky 7) | 30 to 1 (player wins on 7 with three cards) | 15.40% | |
| Super Lucky 7 | 30 to 1 (‘Player’ wins against ‘Banker’ with a total of 7 over 6 in a four-card hand) 40 to 1 (‘Player’ wins against ‘Banker’ with a total of 7 over 6 in a five-card hand) 100 to 1 (‘Player wins against ‘Banker’ with a total of 7 over 6 in a six-card hand) | 14.83% |
Mr Ho, a lecturer at the Centre for Gaming and Tourism Studies at Macao Polytechnic University, told GGRAsia: “The adoption of smart table technology positions Macau casinos at the forefront of gaming innovation and game diversification.”
That was on the basis that more complex payout tables related to side bets could be administered and winnings settled by well-trained staff using such tables.
Mr Ho said nonetheless that while particular side bets known as ‘6s’ and ‘7s’ “have proven successful and popular, the optimal array [of wager choices] remains a moving target”.
The high-payout baccarat side bets ‘Lucky 6’ and its variants, as well as the ‘Lucky 7’ and ‘Super Lucky 7’, mostly boast a theoretical house edge of mid-teens of percent or higher, suggested the gaming scholar.
The Macau market has seen major updates in baccarat side bets with the introduction of ‘Small 6/Big 6’ – a tweak of the side bet Lucky Six in Macau’s casinos – in time for the Labour Day holiday season in May 2024. Later that year – during October’s National Day holiday period for China – Macau casino operators debuted baccarat side bets ‘Lucky 7’ and ‘Super Lucky 7’.
Robert Goldstein, chairman and chief executive of Las Vegas Sands Corp – the parent of Macau operator Sands China Ltd – said on the group’s third-quarter earnings call regarding side bets: “In a company like ours, which is baccarat-dependent, it’s a powerful driver of revenue and EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation].”
From Singapore to Macau
He referred to the case of baccarat side bets at Las Vegas Sands’ Singapore property, Marina Bay Sands, which were introduced there before its Macau venues. He stated: “What you’re seeing in Singapore is simply not the smart table helping us, [but also] the game deviations helped us.”
Smart table technology has been installed on all baccarat rolling chip tables at the Singapore casino resort for more than a year, according to the company. Such technology automatically calculated not only actual hold rate, but theoretical hold rate over a period of time. The latter had grown from 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2024, to 4.1 percent in the second quarter and to 4.2 percent in the third quarter, according to the casino operator’s third-quarter earnings presentation deck.
Mr Goldstein stated additionally on the call: “This isn’t an anomaly; it’s just the way the market is proceeding. I think you’ll see it happen in Macau as well. And for this company, it’s a massive, massive change in the opportunity to make more money.”
Macau’s Lucky 7 and its variation Super Lucky 7 have been adapted from the ‘Dragon Tiger Baccarat’ side bet offered at Marina Bay Sands, industry sources have previously told GGRAsia. The Dragon Tiger baccarat game is, in itself, an extension built on the ‘Tiger Baccarat’ game, also offered at Marina Bay Sands.
‘Supermarket’ of side bets
Recent GGRAsia visits to Sands China properties in Macau indicate that, relative to its Macau peers, it has maintained the market’s most comprehensive set of baccarat side bets per table. On GGRAsia’s visits, pair bets, tie bets, Lucky 6 and Lucky 7 were still available, as well as Small 6/Big 6, Small/Big 7 and Super Lucky 7 via its smart baccarat tables. From July, Sands China added a progressive jackpot to its baccarat table games offer.
Patrick Dumont, president and chief operating officer at Las Vegas Sands, stated during the third quarter call: “I think the great thing… is… all the original bets are there,” and the side bets are “just an option: it just gives them [players] some additional volatility if they want to take it.”
Mr Goldstein also noted his group hosts a “supermarket” of various baccarat side bet options for patrons: “We’re constantly coming up with new bets… The things [that] don’t sell, we take… off the table and put something else to try out.”
According to industry sources spoken to by GGRAsia, a new variation of Dragon Tiger Baccarat – ‘Immortal Dragon Tiger Baccarat’ – has already been implemented in Marina Bay Sands after regulatory approval. The company declined to comment on the topic when approached. From sources, ‘Immortal Dragon’ is a wager that wins if the ‘player’ hand loses with a point total of seven at the end of a round of play. This particular winning wager pays 25 to 1.
For Macau-based gaming researcher Mr Ho, Macau’s current “sicbo-isation” of baccarat side bet wagers – in a manner that he says resemble the diverse wagering options found on a sic bo table – presents a “right direction” in terms of the player experience. He thinks there is potential for “further enhancements” in the games offered.
The gaming scholar also remarked: “In Macau’s context, the success of side bets amongst both mass and VIP segments largely depends on the individual casino property, particularly its unique customer base and market positioning.”
He has though warned of “excessive complexity” of baccarat side bet choices offered on a table. “An approach that marries innovation with simplicity is key to sustaining the timeless appeal of baccarat,” said Mr Ho.
