Tai Kin Ip, the lead official overseeing Macau’s economy, said the city’s 2026 forecast for casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP236 billion (US$29.43 billion) – circa MOP19.67 billion a month – is regarded as a “prudent” basis for planning next year’s public spending.
Though the Secretary for Economy and Finance added that such forecasting was a “challenging” process. Mr Tai made the remarks during Tuesday’s plenary session of the Legislative Assembly (pictured), which gave a first-reading approval for the city’s 2026 fiscal budget.
Forecasts of annual casino GGR figure reflect the outlook for Macau’s fiscal income. Last week the government said it anticipated collecting next year MOP82.60 billion in relation to the “special gaming tax” rate of 35-percent on GGR. Other payments take the effective tax-take on GGR up to 40 percent.
At the Tuesday session, Mr Tai addressed queries from several legislators on how the government made its 2026 casino GGR forecast.
In his introductory speech on the 2026 fiscal budget plan, Mr Tai said the government thought recent “growth momentum” in the city’s “integrated tourism and leisure businesses” – a reference to the casino gaming resort sector – was likely to continue in 2026.
Mr Tai also noted the government anticipated the city’s gross domestic product (GDP) would register growth in 2026.
Regarding the difficulties inherent in economic forecasting, the official referred to the government’s June revision of its 2025 GGR estimates. That had seen the original MOP240-billion estimate trimmed by about 5-percent, to MOP228 billion.
Mr Tai noted: “During the first 10 months of this year, there were five months that could not meet our initial forecast.” Since then, GGR had “exceeded expectation”.
The economy secretary said Macau was susceptible to events in “international economies”. He didn’t elaborate.
Though he remarked “there are also factors like weather,” that could impact GGR estimates. He made reference to September. That month saw a 33-hour precautionary closure of casinos coinciding with a major typhoon.
During September, GGR “amounted to just circa MOP18 billion,” said Mr Ip. That was down 17.5 percent sequentially from August, but up 6.0 percent year-on-year.
Upward and downward fluctuations in Macau’s casino GGR have at times been beyond the government’s expectations, Mr Tai added. “That’s why we took such a cautious stance when making forecasts,” the secretary told legislators.
The 2026 budget plan is due for further deliberation at the Legislative Assembly, following Tuesday’s first-stage approval.
Under the plan, Macau is estimated to see a fiscal surplus of MOP5.31 billion. Its aggregate fiscal income is forecast at nearly MOP118.8 billion, of which nearly 70 percent – or MOP82.6 billion – is from the 35-percent “special gaming tax”.
