JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd is reducing its forecast for Macau’s February gross gaming revenue (GGR) performance, now saying it is likely either to be flat year-on-year, or at most 2 percent up, due to the “mixed lunar new year” performance.
The brokerage had been expecting 2 percent to 5 percent year-on-year improvement.
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian wrote in a Monday memo: “Based on our checks, GGR for the first 22 days of February was MOP14.3 billion [US$1.78 billion] or MOP650 million per day.
“Last week’s run-rate – spanning both the quiet and peak stretches of lunar new year holidays – landed at MOP785 million per day, falling short of our MOP850-million expectation,” they added.
Chinese New Year fell on February 17 this time, and the Chinese mainland – Macau’s main tourism feeder market – had a nine-day holiday from February 15 to February 23 inclusive. In 2025, the lunar new year was January 29, and the mainland holiday was an eight-day break, from January 28 to February 4.
JP Morgan team noted that for the latest festivities: “The holiday kicked off sluggishly, with the first four to five days running at circa MOP450 million per day (down double-digit year-on-year on JP Morgan estimates).
“But from day six onward, activity surged sharply with GGR breaking past MOP1.2-billion per day, implying +10 percent to +15 percent year-on-year.”
The analysts added: “The next few days matter – this post-holiday ‘tail demand’ phase typically sees high-end players accelerate spending. We’ll get the full read from full-month GGR print over the weekend.”
The institution said that even with the trimmed forecast, it expects that January and February taken together – to account for the different timing of Chinese New Year from one year to the next – was still likely to produce 12 percent to 13 percent year-on-year growth.
Citigroup said in a memo after a holiday survey of Macau floors, that it expected a circa 1 percent year-on-year improvement in February GGR, though it had observed a wagering volume that was circa 17 percent higher than the previous Chinese New Year holiday period.
