Banking institution Citigroup says Macau’s February gross gaming revenue (GGR) may rise 1 percent year-on-year, even as its latest table betting survey covering Chinese New Year (CNY) showed a 17-percent year-on-year increase in total wager observed, versus the festive period in 2025.
Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau wrote in an update, referring to the Chinese zodiac symbol for the latest lunar year: “Macau is set to gallop into the Year of the Horse with strong premium mass.”
They also noted: “The data points we collected make us comfortable with our February GGR forecast of MOP20.0 billion [US$2.48 billion].”
That would represent 1 percent year-on-year growth, “implying solid 12 percent year-on-year growth for January and February combined,” said the institution.
The Citi analysts stated: “Total wager observed in Chinese New Year 2026 amounted to HKD24.4 million [US$3.1 million], up 17 percent versus Chinese New Year 2025.”
They added: “The number of premium mass players seen amounted to 824, up 3 percent versus Chinese New Year 2025.
“This implies that average wager per player grew 13 percent year-on-year to a record-high HKD29,625 (versus HKD26,224 in Chinese New Year 2025), indicating that premium mass demand remains robust.”
“We ran into seven whales wagering HKD500,000 or more, compared to four in Chinese New Year 2025,” stated Citi.
Chinese New Year fell on February 17 this time, and the Chinese mainland – Macau’s main tourism feeder market – had a nine-day holiday from February 15 to February 23 inclusive. In 2025, the lunar new year was January 29, and the mainland holiday was an eight-day break, from January 28 to February 4, inclusive.
An observed average baccarat minimum bet of HKD2,347, which the institution said was up 5 percent from for the comparable period a year earlier “seems to point to a recovery in grind mass as well,” observed Citi.
The bank’s survey saw 53 ‘whales’ – defined as patrons with a bet size of HKD100,000 or more – this month, compared to 49 in Chinese New Year 2025.
“Two whales, each wagering HKD800,000, share the player of the month award this month, and both were seen at the Horizon room at Galaxy Macau,” the Cotai property of Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, said the bank.
The financial institution saw a HKD740,000 whale at The Londoner Casino, one of two main gaming areas at Sands China Ltd’s The Londoner Macao.
It also saw a total of three HKD700,000 whales. They were at, respectively, City of Dreams’ high-limit area and Signature Club; and MGM Cotai’s high-limit area. The first property is run by Melco Resorts and Entertainment Ltd; the second by MGM China Holdings Ltd.
Whale bet volume up
The 53 whales seen industry-wide, wagered a total of HKD11.3 million, or an average of HKD213,000 per whale.
“This compares to the 49 whales seen in Chinese New Year who wagered a total of HKD10.2 million, or an average of HKD209,000 per whale,” stated Citi.
The bank said that “unfortunately,” in the course of its survey it did not have access to the expanded area of the Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace, the Cotai property of Wynn Macau Ltd, which it “believed” had opened on February 14.
But Citi stated the property is seemingly “already seeing some early success in drawing whales not only from mainland China,” but also from some other places.
“One of the whales we saw in Wynn Palace was a HKD200,000-wagering Korean,” stated the analysts.
The bank suggested Melco Resorts had “gained pole position” in premium mass in the latest survey, with a 25 percent market share in total wager observed, versus 13 percent in the prior-year festive period.
Citi stated: “We saw a total of 12 whales at City of Dreams, the most among all properties we visited during the survey day.”
Galaxy Entertainment ranked second in premium mass, with a 23 percent market share of total wager observed, though that was down 1 percentage point on Chinese New Year 2025.
Citi said its February wager survey also showed SJM Holdings Ltd had “recently opened a new low-limit baccarat area at Grand Lisboa Palace”, its Cotai property.
“Of the 24 tables there, three of them had minimum bets of HKD300. This makes Grand Lisboa Palace the only Cotai property offering HKD300 baccarat tables,” per the survey findings, said Citi.
GGRAsia’s own Friday survey of Macau gaming floors had indicated Grand Lisboa Palace had an area of lower-priced tables in front of Phoenix Pavilion – a VIP slot zone – offering bets at HKD300, HKD500, and HKD800.
Citi said in its latest report that “recent retail shop openings across various integrated resorts also reconfirm” the institution’s view “that affluent mainland Chinese visitors remain willing to spend”.
