Recovery in travel and tourism to pre-pandemic levels in the 10-country club the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the three linked large-country economies of China, South Korea, and Japan, might only happen in 2024, says a research report.
“‘Revenge travel’ – the urge to travel to compensate for losttime due to the pandemic – will be one of the key drivers of tourism demand in the near-term,” suggests the paper from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), based in Singapore.
It added: “Tourism is expected to recover further in 2023 and return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024.”
“China holds the key as the largest source of tourists for most of the region’s economies: a full regional tourism recovery will be highly dependent on the rate of resumption of outbound travel from China,” adds the report “ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2023”.
Among ASEAN members, a majority – including Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam – hosts recognised casino sectors, and Thailand is mulling legalisation, though it could be several years away.
Of the “Plus 3”, China has the largest casino industry by gross gaming revenue, hosted from the Macau Special Administrative Region. South Korea has a casino industry mostly geared to foreigner-only venues, and Japan is considering investment plans by Osaka and Nagasaki respectively, to create gaming resorts.
“The recovery in tourism receipts will be crucial in supporting current account balances and buttressing economic growth in the region as global demand for goods weakens,” states the AMRO report.
It further notes that adoption of technology such as digital travel portals to verify health entry requirements and digital-payment systems across the region would “facilitate travel in the post-pandemic world”.
The AMRO report stated: “In addition, the region’s advantages in hosting MICE [meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions] events and promoting ecotourism could further improve its attractiveness as the world reopens further.”
The respective governments of Macau and Singapore – and the authorities in the would-be casino resort jurisdiction Japan – have identified growth in MICE business as an important element in ensuring their casino resorts increase length-of-stay by guests.
AMRO’s report cautioned however that the macroeconomic “growth outlook for ASEAN+3 is fraught with uncertainties”.
It stated:“The most immediate risk is the possibility of another shock to global energy prices should the ongoing Ukraine crisis escalate.”
