Fitch Ratings Inc forecasts Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2026, from 4.7 percent last year, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) “recovering to nearly 89 percent of its 2019 level”, i.e., hitting circa MOP260 billion (US$32.29 billion) this year.
The commentary was part of a Wednesday report in which the institution affirmed Macau’s long-term issuer default rating at “AA”, with a “stable” outlook.
“We expect gaming tourism growth [in Macau] to slow but remain solid in 2026, supported by favourable visa-entry policies, expanded cultural and entertainment offerings, and continued non-gaming investments,” wrote analysts George Xu, Kathleen Chen, and Jan Friederich.
“A significant slowdown in China’s economy weighing on consumer sentiment and travel spending, poses a key downside risk to Macau’s gaming tourism outlook,” they stated.
“Macau remains exposed to policy shifts affecting the gaming tourism sector,” the analysts added.
Macau’s casino GGR for calendar-year 2025 reached MOP247.40 billion (US$30.86 billion), according to official data.
It was the highest annual GGR tally since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020. Full-year 2019 GGR in Macao stood at just under MOP292.46 billion.
The Fitch analysts said they expect Macau’s “mass market, particularly the premium-mass segment, comprising non-VIP customers with higher bets than average, will remain relatively resilient in 2026, assuming solid visitation from mainland China”.
According to the rating agency, Macau’s mass-market GGR “exceeded the 2019 level by about 14 percent” in 2025. The VIP segment “gained more traction in the second half of 2025 amid continued restructuring of junket operations and the closure of satellite casinos, although VIP GGR remained roughly half of its 2019 level”.
Fitch however said Macau’s economy remains “highly dependent on gaming,” which it said accounted for 43.3 percent of gross value added in the economy in 2024.
“We expect the government will continue to push for the development of other sectors,” noted the institution.
“However, human capital constraints and skill mismatches will limit Macau’s ability to build a competitive edge in nascent non-gaming sectors in the near term,” said the analysts.
“Limited additions to hotel capacity and air connectivity will also constrain faster diversification of visitor source markets,” they added.
Fitch said it forecast Macau to achieve a “budget surplus of about 5.0 percent of GDP in 2026 … and 5.2 percent in 2027, after an estimated 4.7 percent in 2025”.
“This reflects our expectation that gaming tax revenue, accounting for more than 80 percent of total revenue in 2025, will well exceed the [Macau] government’s conservative target this year, while we expect government spending to remain within budget,” the institution added.
The Macau government has forecast casino GGR of MOP236 billion – circa MOP19.67 billion a month – for full-year 2026.
The government also has said it anticipates collecting MOP82.60 billion this year in relation to the “special gaming tax” rate of 35-percent on GGR. Other payments related with social development take the effective tax-take on GGR up to 40 percent.
The rating agency also said it expects Macau to record “a large current account surplus,” at 33.8 percent of GDP in 2026, “thanks to robust gaming and tourism receipts”.
