Casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau reached MOP6.4 billion (US$801.7 million) in the first seven days of October, the period of China’s Golden Week holiday marking National Day, according to figures compiled by Macau public broadcaster TDM.
Average daily revenue (ADR) in Macau casinos rose to about MOP914.3 million between October 1 and 7, TDM reported on Thursday.
Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd in Hong Kong said in a note on Friday it estimated Macau’s ADR for the first five days of October had been MOP850 million to MOP900 million. The ADR for the first five days of October 2014 had been slightly above MOP1 billion, according to figures reported by GGRAsia in October last year.
“While fundamentally, a good start to Golden Week is encouraging, strength continuing into the rest of October and post-opening of Studio City will be critical to maintain stock price levels,” stated Sanford C. Bernstein’s analysts Vitaly Umansky, Simon Zhang and Bo Wen referring to this year’s autumn holiday season. Studio City, a casino resort majority-owned by Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd, is due to open on October 27.
Macau’s Golden Week visitor numbers have played a part in the recent rally of Macau gaming stocks, several investment analysts have said.
There were close to 1.07 million visitor arrivals recorded in Macau during the period October 1 to October 7 inclusive – a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percent – said data from the Macau Government Tourist Office. Arrivals from mainland China accounted for 906,652 of the total, a year-on-year rise for mainland visitors that amounted to 7.1 percent. The period’s tally might have been higher but for a typhoon that skirted the city on Sunday and disrupted ferry travel and air travel.
A note from Morgan Stanley Research on Friday said some of the positive headlines about September gaming revenue; and those for October’s Golden Week; might have been an overreaction.
“While many argue that September and Golden Week revenue came better than expectations, we disagree. September mass revenue declined by 12 percent month-on-month… Junket VIP roll came at MOP211 billion, the lowest since July 2009. For Golden Week, GGR dropped 30 percent year-on-year compared to Golden Week last year,” wrote Praveen Choudhary, Alex Poon and Thomas Allen.
Daiwa Securities Group Inc said in a note on Wednesday – regarding the outlook in the Macau casino market or the remainder of October and onward: “In our view, maintenance of the peak-season ADR would serve as an incremental positive for the sector; while a failure to hold up would indicate a lack of fundamental improvement.”
“We expect an October GGR of MOP19.5 billion, equivalent to -30 percent year-on-year and +10 percent month-on-month swings in the daily run rate,” said analysts Jamie Soo, Adrian Chan and Jennifer Wu.
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