GGRAsia – Macau casino demand to ramp beyond May hols: analysts

Macau casino demand to ramp beyond May hols: analysts

May 02, 2023 Newsdesk Latest News, Macau, Top of the deck

Macau’s April casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) represented a “run rate” of MOP491 million (US$60.7 million) per day, which was 19 percent above the daily average for the first quarter, and 27 percent above March’s. Such performance should “reassure investors of a very clear ramp in demand” into the rest of the second quarter, said a Monday note from JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd.

The brokerage observed that this year the mainland China holiday period encompassing Labour Day on May 1 was five days long – i.e., April 29 to May 3 inclusive – rather than what it said was four days in 2019, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Regardless of the difficulties in comparison, we are confident of a ‘strong recovery’ where mass demand comfortably recovers to over 80 percent of pre-Covid levels, versus 70 percent-plus recovery during Chinese New Year,” said JP Morgan analysts DS Kim and Mufan Shi.

In another Monday note, John DeCree and Max Marsh, of CBRE Securities LLC, said May was “poised for further recovery” in Macau demand.

“April GGR implies an annual run rate of over US$22 billion,” they stated, though added the outlook could improve further.

Macau’s casino GGR reached MOP14.72 billion in April, up 15.6 percent from March’s MOP12.74-billion.

The April tally was up 449.9 percent from the prior-year period, according to data released on Monday by the local regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.

JP Morgan said the April result “implies mass GGR likely recovered to about 85 percent of April 2019’s or over 75 percent even if we roughly adjust for the calendar shift of holidays “.

This was a “significant step-up from the 65 percent recovery during the first quarter,” added JP Morgan.

For April, the institution estimated “VIP also recovered to 20 percent to 25 percent of pre-Covid levels,” which it asserted was “pretty solid for a segment that was widely considered ‘gone’”.

George Choi and Ryan Cheung of Citigroup said in a Sunday memo that a Macau table survey the institution did on April 28, just before the Labour Day festivities, indicated average minimum baccarat bets had risen 8 percent compared to March.

The aggregate in wagers that it observed was HKD7.2 million (US$ 917,220), “up 25 percent month-on-month”.