Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the first four days of February is estimated at MOP2.5 billion (US$310.3 million), or MOP625 million a day, said JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd in a Monday memo, citing its industry checks.
“The figure is comparable with January’s MOP624 million – which was already a strong beat – which is pretty impressive considering a pre-holiday seasonality ahead of Lunar New Year,” wrote analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li.
The Chinese New Year holiday period falls on February 10 this year, and runs until February 17.
Casino GGR in Macau rose by 67.0 percent year-on-year in January to MOP19.34 billion, according to official data.
The JP Morgan team suggested Macau’s casino GGR across the first four days of February reflected mass-market GGR had “recovered to over 110 percent of pre-COVID levels”, while “VIP likely stayed around at mid-20s-percent of recovery”.
The analysts added: “Our checks on Chinese New Year indicate a very healthy level (essentially a record-high quality) of gaming patrons pre-booked for comped rooms.”
The institution expects “over MOP650 million a day print over the 8-day holiday – implying about 120 percent recovery in mass GGR versus 2019 Chinese New Year – including a lull period (first few days of very weak days)”.
Checks by GGRAsia showed that a number of Macau’s luxury hotels in casino resorts already had – as of Wednesday – no rooms available to the public for any of the nights of the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday.
The JP Morgan team added: “Given where we are in the macro cycle, we erred on the side of caution to assume financial-year 2024 mass GGR stays at current levels (112 percent of pre-COVID) and margin to stay flattish from fourth-quarter 2023.”
Last week, Citigroup rose its February GGR forecast for Macau to MOP19.5 billion, from MOP18.5 billion. The institution said it expect the run-rate to accelerate “to around MOP900 million per day from February 12 to February 17 (the last six days of the Chinese New Year [holiday period].”
