Seaport Research Partners estimates that average daily casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau’s casino industry during the Lunar New Year Golden Week was “softer than originally forecast,” standing at MOP780 million (US$97.3 million) for the period from January 28 to February 4, with an aggregate of approximately MOP6.24 billion.
“The daily average would be down 1 percent compared to Chinese New Year [CNY] 2024 and down 8 percent compared to Chinese New Year 2019,” wrote senior analyst Vitaly Umansky in a Thursday memo.
The lunar new year, a peak business period for Macau’s casinos and hotels, is often referred to as Lunar New Year Golden Week or Chinese New Year Golden Week.
The start of the 2025 lunar new year was on January 29. China’s State Council declared the mainland holiday – this time marking the Year of the Snake – as an eight-day period running from January 29 to February 4 inclusive.
Macau’s visitor tally for the eight-day 2025 Lunar New Year Golden Week stood at 1.31 million, according to official data. The figure was down by 3.5 percent compared to the 2024 Lunar New Year Golden Week.
“The average daily visitation of 163,700 per day was 4 percent below Chinese New Year 2024 and 5 percent below Chinese New Year 2019,” noted Seaport.
It added: “Estimated per visitor GGR was US$593, up 3 percent compared to Chinese New Year 2024 and down 3 percent compared to Chinese New Year 2019.”
Mr Umansky, however, noted that “spend per visitor is a somewhat misleading figure, as Macau likely saw many non-gaming visitors come into the city during the holiday.” He highlighted that “anecdotes from Macau point to somewhat better premium play than base mass play.”
Seaport stated that the Lunar New Year Golden Week casino performance is “an important sentiment driver for Macau; however, the actual holiday is often mixed in terms of results, with Chinese New Year 2019 representing only 2 percent of 2019 GGR and 2024 Chinese New Year representing 2.7 percent of 2024 GGR.”
The brokerage reaffirmed its current Macau casino market forecast of MOP242 billion in GGR for full-year 2025, adding that it expected February’s performance “to be slightly better than January,” with Seaport maintaining its GGR estimate for the full month of February at MOP18.5 billion, almost flat year-on-year and a slight increase of 1.3 percent month-on-month.
“If our estimate proves correct, the combined January-February period would be down 2.8 percent year-on-year,” stated Mr Umansky.
