Cambodian casino operator NagaCorp Ltd’s 30-percent dividend payout ratio would in likelihood “remain steady” in the period between 2026 and 2028, as the firm intends to fund the expansion scheme of its NagaWorld casino resort with internal cashflow, suggested CLSA Ltd in a Tuesday memo.
NagaCorp reported a net profit of US$309.9 million for full-year 2025, up from a US$109.6-million profit a year earlier. The firm’s 2025 earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) stood at US$404.4 million, up from US$202.8 million in 2024.
The Hong Kong-listed company has a long-life casino monopoly in the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh, where it runs the NagaWorld casino resort (pictured).
NagaCorp declared an interim dividend of US$0.0109 per share – amounting to US$48.3 million in aggregate – to be paid on August 7.
The casino operator has managed to deliver “solid” results during the second half of 2025, albeit amid the Cambodia-Thailand armed conflict during that period, CLSA’s analyst Jeffrey Kiang wrote.
“We see plenty of positives, including the disciplined rebate spending … while side bets continued to underpin both win rates and margins,” the analyst added.
“Dividends also resumed in fiscal year 2025 with a 30 percent headline payout ratio, which will likely remain steady over the next three years as it intends to fund NagaWorld 3 with internal cashflow,” the CLSA analyst noted.
NagaCorp in December reaffirmed its intention to continue with the development of the Naga 3 project, despite terminating a subscription agreement that would have seen the company raise additional funds. The firm had previously said that it was likely to reduce the cost and scale of the expansion scheme.
In Tuesday’s report, CLSA said it now expects NagaCorp’s 2026 EBITDA to grow by 8 percent year-on-year to US$437 million, while the firm’s net profit for the year might grow by 11 percent, to US$347 million.
The brokerage’s latest estimate regarding NagaCorp’s 2026 net profit was 1-percent higher than the previous estimate, at US$344 million. CLSA has also raised its estimates for NagaCorp’s 2027 net profit by 2 percent, to US$382 million.
“Our uplift in profit forecast is mainly driven by our higher win rate assumptions of premium VIP segment – from 3.0 percent to 3.5 percent -, which is partially offset by our lower forecasted rolling chip volumes,” the CLSA analyst suggested.
Mr Kiang added: “Following adjustments to our operating expense assumptions, we expect that the aggregate administrative and other opex [operating expenditure] to grow 5 percent year-on-year in 2026.”
CLSA also said it expected NagaCorp to see a “notable” year-on-year growth in daily buy-ins at mass floor’s tables during the second half of this year, as it is likely to be boosted by Cambodia’s offer of visa-free entry to Chinese-passport holders from June 15, as well as a comparison with the “low base” in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Cambodia’s visa-free arrangement – which allows Chinese passport holders to stay in the country for up to 14 days – is to last for four months on a trial basis.
“Management briefings indicate that VIP rolling volumes had sequentially rebounded post-ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand,” the analyst stated. “Furthermore, four-month trial visa exemption for Chinese citizens will begin on June 15.”
He added: “Along with a guided 2026 capex [capital expenditure] of US$170 million, 26-percent below our forecast, these suggest 2026 will likely be another year where NagaCorp can reap robust cashflow.”
