Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 21 days of January is estimated at MOP13.0 billion (US$1.61 billion), or MOP619 million a day, said JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd in a Monday memo, citing its industry checks.
The figure for the first 21 days of January represents a “robust run-rate” compared to MOP599 million a day in December, “which was already a beat,” wrote analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li.
The JP Morgan team suggested Macau’s daily casino GGR across the seven days to Sunday inclusive was MOP628 million, “which actually implies a sequential improvement despite weaker seasonality, almost comparable to the impressive New Year holiday print (MOP630 million).”
According to the institution, last week’s GGR tally indicates mass revenue “was running at 105 percent to 110 percent of pre-Covid levels (versus circa 105 percent in the fourth quarter), while VIP was flattish month-on-month in the low-20 percent.”
“While GGR is due to slow down seasonally for the next few weeks ahead of Chinese New Year … we expect January to print at least MOP17.5 billion to MOP18 billion, which should still satisfy market expectations,” stated the JP Morgan analysts.
The Chinese New Year holiday period falls on February 10 this year, and runs until February 17.
The brokerage also said it expected Macau casino industry fourth-quarter earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to grow between 8 percent to 9 percent sequentially, “to hit about 85 percent of pre-Covid levels on a luck-adjusted basis”.
