A “long-term target” for Macau casino operator MGM China Holdings Ltd is sustaining its gross gaming revenue (GGR) market share at “ mid-teens” level, with the company “protecting” its appeal to premium-mass gamblers with investments and upgrades to its two Macau properties, suggested banking group Jefferies in a Tuesday memo.
MGM China operates MGM Macau, on the city’s peninsula, and MGM Cotai, in the Cotai district.
Jefferies said it expected MGM China to report in its fourth-quarter 2024 results, “7 percent quarter-on-quarter GGR growth to… US$1.1 billion (HKD8.5 billion)”.
The institution added this would be “higher” than the Macau industry’s anticipated 3 percent sequential GGR expansion.
“We believe [MGM China] gained market share thanks to strong performance from the VIP segment,” wrote Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei.
They forecast MGM China’s fourth-quarter GGR market share to reach 15.8 percent, up 1.0 percentage point from the third quarter’s 14.8 percent.
In 2024, MGM China’s quarterly market share peaked at 17.1 percent, achieved in the opening three months.
“We expect MGM Macau and MGM Cotai on an aggregate basis to report adjusted EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation] margin of 27 percent to HKD2.1 billion,” stated the institution.
Such quarter-on-quarter adjusted EBITDA growth would be “5 percent.. slower than [MGM China’s] GGR as we budget in more operating expenses such as the Poly MGM Museum at MGM Macau that opened November 24 and the ‘Macau 2049’ show, launched in December 2024,” said Jefferies.
Brokerage CLSA Ltd stated in a January 9 memo, it expected the Macau sector’s fourth-quarter 2024 EBITDA to be approximately US$2.02 billion (HK$15.7 billion), tracking 5-percent quarter-on-quarter growth.
That would in likelihood be driven by “seasonally higher non-gaming revenue” as well as the 3-percent quarterly growth in Macau’s GGR, stated the institution.
