Banking institution Citigroup said it was “encouraged” by the results of its December survey of Macau casinos, after observing “plenty” of premium-mass players in the market. It said it remained “comfortable” with its Macau December 2024 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of MOP18.5 billion (US$2.31 billion), flat month-on-month.
“We held very low expectations going into Macau last Friday, knowing that we were conducting our survey one week ahead of China President Xi Jinping’s visit to Macau for the 25th anniversary of the handover [of Macau to China],” wrote analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
On Saturday it was confirmed that President Xi will be in Macau from December 18 to 20 to take part in the celebrations of the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the Macau Special Administrative Region (MSAR).
In its recent note, Citigroup suggested that Macau’s six operators “seemed to anticipate a slowdown too” in December.
“On our count, [the] number of baccarat tables deployed with dealers in premium-mass areas were 8-percent less month-on-month, and average mass baccarat minimum bet was 4-percent lower versus December 2023,” stated the analysts.
They added: “We came back from Macau more encouraged, as our statistics show that premium-mass player count was 26-percent higher versus December 2023; average wager/player held up well, still above HKD20,000 [US$2,573]; and we ran into 21 whales, one more versus December 2023.”
The institution defines “whales” as players that have a bet size of HKD100,000 or more. It said the “average wager per whale of HKD191,905 was 9-percent higher versus December 2023’s HKD176,750”.
According to Citigroup, the survey conducted in December showed that there were “plenty of players in Macau whose gaming appetites seem little affected” by politics-related events that are scheduled to occur this month.
The banking institution said that in December 2019 it conducted its table survey also one week ahead of President Xi’s visit to Macau for the 20th anniversary of the handover.
“Our statistics show that premium-mass average wager/players was HKD13,196, down 6 percent versus December 2018. Average mass baccarat minimum bet was HKD1,834, down 4 percent versus December 2018,” stated the analysts.
They added: “The trends in December 2024 are like a mirror image: premium-mass average wager/players fell 8 percent versus December 2023, to HKD20,943, total wager observed rose 17 percent year-on-year to HKD10.7 million. Number of premium-mass players seen amounted to 510, up 26 percent year-on-year.”
The Citigroup team said the average mass baccarat minimum bet observed in this month’s survey “was HKD1,977, down 4 percent versus December 2023”.
The analysts recalled that Macau “had a strong finish” in late-December 2019, with GGR flat month-on-month, at nearly MOP22.84 billion.
“We will not be surprised if history repeats itself, and we remain comfortable with our December 2024 GGR forecast of MOP18.5 billion, flat month-on-month.”
